McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
American Institutes for Research, Arlington, Virginia, USA.
Health Econ. 2024 Feb;33(2):204-228. doi: 10.1002/hec.4768. Epub 2023 Oct 16.
We study potential non-targeted effects of a large-scale national conditional cash transfer program-Peru's Juntos-on the fertility and reproductive decisions of adult beneficiaries. We use an event study design, exploiting time and geographic variation in the rollout of the program, to identify the causal effects of the program. We find that Juntos decreases the number of children that adult beneficiaries have and that these effects persist over time. We explore various mechanisms and find that Juntos does not affect fertility preferences but rather empowers women to avoid unwanted births. We provide evidence that this decrease is most likely due to better access to and more extensive use of modern birth control methods.
我们研究了大规模的国家有条件现金转移计划——秘鲁的 Juntos 对成年受益人的生育和生殖决策的潜在非目标影响。我们使用事件研究设计，利用该计划推出的时间和地理变化来确定该计划的因果效应。我们发现 Juntos 减少了成年受益人的孩子数量，并且这些影响会持续一段时间。我们探讨了各种机制，发现 Juntos 并不影响生育偏好，而是赋予妇女权力以避免意外怀孕。我们提供的证据表明，这种减少很可能是由于更好地获得和更广泛地使用现代节育方法。
