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金砖国家能源消耗与创新-环境恶化关系研究:基于二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放的 NARDL 方法的新证据。

Energy consumption and innovation-environmental degradation nexus in BRICS countries: new evidence from NARDL approach using carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions.

机构信息

School of Business and Management, Fujian Business University, Fuzhou, 350012, China.

Faculty of Economics & Commerce, Superior University Lahore, Lahore, Pakistan.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Nov;30(53):113561-113586. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29927-2. Epub 2023 Oct 18.

Abstract

The BRICS nations-Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa-have grown significantly in importance over the past few decades, playing a vital role in the development and growth of the global economy. This expansion has not been without cost, either, since these countries' concern over environmental deterioration has risen sharply. Both researchers and decision-makers have focused a lot of attention on the connection between economic growth and ecological sustainability. By using nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach, the complex relationships were analyzed between important economic indicators-such as gross domestic product (GDP), ecological innovations (EI), energy consumption (ENC), institutional performance (IP), and trade openness (TOP)-and their effect on carbon emissions and nitrous oxide emissions in the BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021, this study seeks to contribute to this important dialog. Principal component analysis is formed for technological innovations and institutional performance using six (ICT service exports as a percentage of service exports, computer communications as a percentage of commercial service exports, fixed telephone subscriptions per 100 people, internet users as a percentage of the population, number of patent applications, and R&D expenditures as a percentage of GDP) and twelve (government stability, investment profile, socioeconomic conditions, internal conflict, external conflict, military in politics, control of corruption, religious tensions, ethnic tensions, law and order, bureaucracy quality, and democratic accountability) distinct indicators, respectively. The results of nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation show that increase in economic growth would increase carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions. The positive and negative shocks in trade openness have positive and significant impact on carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions in BRICS countries. Furthermore, the positive shock energy consumptions have positive and significant effect on Brazil and India when carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions are used. However, EKC exists in BRICS countries when carbon dioxide and nitrous oxide emissions are used. According to long-term estimation, energy consumption and technological innovations in the BRICS countries show a strong and adverse link with nitrous oxide and a favorable relationship with carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, environmental indicators are seen to have a major and unfavorable impact in BRICS nations. Finally, it is proposed that BRICS nations can assure environmental sustainability if they support creative activities, enhance their institutions, and support free trade policies.

摘要

金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)在过去几十年中的重要性显著增长,在全球经济的发展和增长中发挥了至关重要的作用。这种扩张并非没有代价,因为这些国家对环境恶化的担忧急剧上升。研究人员和决策者都非常关注经济增长与生态可持续性之间的联系。本研究采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)方法,分析了 1990 年至 2021 年期间,金砖国家的重要经济指标(如国内生产总值(GDP)、生态创新(EI)、能源消耗(ENC)、制度绩效(IP)和贸易开放度(TOP))与碳排放和氧化亚氮排放之间的复杂关系,旨在为这一重要对话做出贡献。使用六个(信息和通信技术服务出口占服务出口的百分比、计算机通信占商业服务出口的百分比、每 100 人固定电话订阅数、互联网用户占人口的百分比、专利申请数和研发支出占 GDP 的百分比)和十二个(政府稳定性、投资状况、社会经济状况、内部冲突、外部冲突、军事干预政治、腐败控制、宗教紧张局势、民族紧张局势、法律和秩序、官僚机构质量和民主问责制)不同指标对技术创新和制度绩效进行主成分分析。非线性自回归分布滞后估计的结果表明,经济增长的增加将增加二氧化碳和氧化亚氮的排放。贸易开放度的正、负冲击对金砖国家的二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放有积极和显著的影响。此外,当使用二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放时,能源消耗的正冲击对巴西和印度的二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放有积极和显著的影响。然而,当使用二氧化碳和氧化亚氮排放时,金砖国家存在 EKC。根据长期估计,金砖国家的能源消耗和技术创新与氧化亚氮呈强烈的负相关关系,与二氧化碳排放呈有利关系。从长期来看,环境指标对金砖国家的影响较大且不利。最后,建议金砖国家如果支持创新活动、加强制度和支持自由贸易政策,就可以确保环境的可持续性。

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