Department of Gastroenterology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, 515041, China.
Department of Nursing, Shantou Central Hospital, Shantou, China.
BMC Gastroenterol. 2023 Oct 18;23(1):359. doi: 10.1186/s12876-023-02990-2.
Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection is associated with various diseases. Early detection can prevent the onset of illness. We constructed a nomogram to predict groups at high risk of HP infection.
Patients who underwent regular medical check-ups at hospital in Chaoshan, China from March to September 2022 were randomly allocated to the training and validation cohorts. Risk factors including basic characteristics and lifestyle habits associated with HP infection were analyzed by logistic regression analyses. The independent varieties were calculated and plotted into a nomogram. The nomogram was internally validated by receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration, and decision curve analyses (DCAs).
Of the 945 patients, 680 were included in the training cohort and 265 in the validation cohort. 356 patients in training cohort with positive 13 C-UBT results served as the infected group, and 324 without infection were the control group. The multivariate regression analyses showed that the risk factors for HP infection included alcohol consumption (OR = 1.29, 95%CI = 0.78-2.13, P = 0.03), family history of gastric disease (OR = 4.35, 95%CI = 1.47-12.84, P = 0.01), living with an HP-positive individual (OR = 18.09, 95%CI = 10.29-31.82, P < 0.0001), drinking hot tea (OR = 1.58, 95%CI = 1.05-2.48, P = 0.04), and infection status of co-drinkers unknown (OR = 2.29, 95%CI = 1.04-5.06, P = 0.04). However, drinking tea > 3 times per day (OR = 0.56, 95%CI = 0.33-0.95, P = 0.03), using serving chopsticks (OR = 0.30, 95%CI = 0.12-0.49, P < 0.0001) were protective factors for HP infection. The nomogram had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 in the training cohort. The DCA was above the reference line within a large threshold range, indicating that the model was better. The calibration analyses showed the actual occurrence rate was basically consistent with the predicted occurrence rate. The model was validated in the validation cohort, and had a good AUC (0.80), DCA and calibration curve results.
This nomogram, which incorporates basic characteristics and lifestyle habits, is an efficient model for predicting those at high risk of HP infection in the Chaoshan region.
幽门螺杆菌（HP）感染与多种疾病有关。早期发现可以预防疾病的发生。我们构建了一个列线图来预测 HP 感染高危人群。
2022 年 3 月至 9 月，在中国潮汕地区医院进行常规体检的患者被随机分配到训练和验证队列中。通过 logistic 回归分析，分析与 HP 感染相关的基本特征和生活方式等危险因素。计算独立变量并绘制列线图。通过受试者工作特征曲线、校准和决策曲线分析（DCAs）对内进行验证。
945 例患者中，680 例纳入训练队列，265 例纳入验证队列。在训练队列中，356 例 13C-UBT 阳性的患者为感染组，324 例无感染的患者为对照组。多因素回归分析显示，HP 感染的危险因素包括饮酒（OR=1.29，95%CI=0.78-2.13，P=0.33）、胃病史家族史（OR=4.35，95%CI=1.47-12.84，P=0.01）、与 HP 阳性者同住（OR=18.09，95%CI=10.29-31.82，P<0.0001）、常喝热茶（OR=1.58，95%CI=1.05-2.48，P=0.04）和未知共饮者的感染状态（OR=2.29，95%CI=1.04-5.06，P=0.04）。然而，每天饮用茶水>3 次（OR=0.56，95%CI=0.33-0.95，P=0.03）、使用公用筷子（OR=0.30，95%CI=0.12-0.49，P<0.0001）是 HP 感染的保护因素。该列线图在训练队列中的曲线下面积（AUC）为 0.85。DCA 在较大阈值范围内高于参考线，表明模型更好。校准分析表明，实际发生率与预测发生率基本一致。该模型在验证队列中进行了验证，具有良好的 AUC（0.80）、DCA 和校准曲线结果。
该列线图纳入了基本特征和生活方式等因素，是潮汕地区预测 HP 感染高危人群的有效模型。
