College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal University, Jinan, 250358, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Nov;30(53):114420-114437. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30393-z. Epub 2023 Oct 20.
In the context of the increasing global greenhouse effect, the Chinese government has proposed a "dual carbon" target. As a major carbon-emitting province in China, Shandong Province needs to improve its carbon productivity to coordinate carbon emission reductions and sustainable economic growth. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon productivity at the county scale and the factors influencing it in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2017. The study uses the Dagum Gini coefficient, kernel density analysis, spatial autocorrelation model, and geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The results indicate that the carbon productivity in Shandong Province nearly doubled during the study period, revealing a spatial distribution characteristic of "high in the east and low in the west," together with a significant positive spatial autocorrelation. Intra-regional differences, the most important source of development differences among the three economic circles, rose to 32.11% during the study period, whereas inter-regional differences declined to 26.6%. Gross domestic product per capita and population density play a significant positive role in the development of carbon productivity. The balance of deposits in financial institutions at the end of the year has a weak positive effect, and the local average public finance expenditure and secondary industry structure on carbon productivity are negative in general. Shandong Province should identify specific regions with weak carbon productivity levels and understand the key factors to improve carbon productivity to promote the achievement of the "dual carbon" goal.
在中国日益严重的全球温室效应背景下，中国政府提出了“双碳”目标。作为中国主要的碳排放省份，山东省需要提高其碳生产力，以协调碳减排和可持续经济增长。本研究分析了 2000 年至 2017 年山东省县级碳生产力的时空演变及其影响因素。本研究采用 Dagum Gini 系数、核密度分析、空间自相关模型和时空加权回归模型。结果表明，山东省碳生产力在研究期间几乎翻了一番，呈现出“东高西低”的空间分布特征，同时具有显著的正空间自相关。区域内差异（三大经济圈发展差异的最重要来源）在研究期间上升到 32.11%，而区域间差异则下降到 26.6%。人均国内生产总值和人口密度对碳生产力的发展起到了显著的积极作用。年末金融机构存款余额具有较弱的正效应，地方平均财政支出和第二产业结构对碳生产力的影响总体上是负的。山东省应确定碳生产力水平较弱的具体地区，并了解提高碳生产力的关键因素，以促进实现“双碳”目标。
