Juon Andreas, Bochsler Daniel
ETH Zurich, Switzerland.
Central European University (CEU), Wien, Austria.
Comp Polit Stud. 2023 Nov;56(13):1996-2029. doi: 10.1177/00104140231168365. Epub 2023 Apr 1.
This article evaluates how territorial autonomy affects ethnic mobilization and conflict during regime transitions. Previous research has highlighted its conflict-inducing role during prominent transition contexts. Alternatively, it has shown its pacifying role in the "average" case, without distinguishing transition periods from stable contexts. Addressing these gaps, we argue that the de-escalatory consequences of autonomy depend on critical stabilizing factors which are themselves "muted" during transitions. We test our expectations in a cross-national analysis, covering all regime transitions between 1946 and 2017. We also revisit the 1989 transition from Communism, focusing on the role of "inherited" autonomy in the post-communist successor states. This enables us to address concerns whereby autonomy is offered to ward off transitions or whereby transitions are themselves induced by mobilization. Our findings indicate that during transitions, territorial autonomy increases the likelihood of ethnic mobilization, government concessions in response, and violent escalation where these are not forthcoming.
本文评估了领土自治在政权过渡期间如何影响族裔动员和冲突。先前的研究强调了它在突出的过渡背景下引发冲突的作用。或者，它在“一般”情况下显示出其安抚作用，却没有区分过渡时期和稳定背景。为填补这些空白，我们认为自治的缓和后果取决于关键的稳定因素，而这些因素在过渡期间本身就“被弱化”了。我们在一项跨国分析中检验了我们的预期，该分析涵盖了1946年至2017年期间的所有政权过渡。我们还重新审视了1989年从共产主义的过渡，重点关注“继承”的自治在共产主义后继承国中的作用。这使我们能够解决有关为避免过渡而给予自治或过渡本身由动员引发的问题。我们的研究结果表明，在过渡期间，领土自治增加了族裔动员的可能性、政府相应让步的可能性，以及在没有让步的情况下暴力升级的可能性。
