School of Business Administration, Huaqiao University, Quanzhou, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Oct 23;18(10):e0293284. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293284. eCollection 2023.
This paper empirically investigates the impact mechanism of short-term debt for long-term use and the default risk of supply chain firms with the data of Chinese A-share listed firms from 2007 to 2021. The study shows that there is a significant U-curve relationship between short-term debt for long-term use and supply chain firms' default risk, and too high or too low a level of short-term loans and long-term investments will worsen firms' default risk. In addition, firm performance plays an mediating effect in the process of short-term debt for long-term investment affecting the default risk of supply chain firms. Finally, customer effect and firm heterogeneity play a moderating role in the impact of short-term loans and long-term investments on the default risk of supply chain firms, and the U-shaped relationship will be strengthened under the high-intensity customer effect. This study has important theoretical and practical significance for analyzing the impact of default risk contagion in supply chain enterprises.
本文利用 2007 年至 2021 年中国 A 股上市公司的数据，实证研究了短期债务长期化和供应链企业违约风险的影响机制。研究表明，短期债务长期化与供应链企业违约风险之间存在显著的 U 型关系，过高或过低的短期贷款和长期投资水平都会加剧企业的违约风险。此外，企业绩效在短期贷款长期投资影响供应链企业违约风险的过程中发挥了中介作用。最后，客户效应和企业异质性在短期贷款和长期投资对供应链企业违约风险的影响中起到了调节作用，在高强度的客户效应下，U 型关系会得到加强。本研究对于分析供应链企业违约风险传染的影响具有重要的理论和实践意义。
