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人们低估了重复对真相判断的影响(而且对自己的影响比对他人的影响更大)。

People underestimate the influence of repetition on truth judgments (and more so for themselves than for others).

机构信息

University of Milano-Bicocca, Italy; Vita-Salute San Raffaele University, Italy.

UCLouvain, Belgium; Aix-Marseille Université, France.

出版信息

Cognition. 2024 Jan;242:105651. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2023.105651. Epub 2023 Oct 21.

Abstract

People judge repeated statements as more truthful than new statements: a truth effect. In three pre-registered experiments (N = 463), we examined whether people expect repetition to influence truth judgments more for others than for themselves: a bias blind spot in the truth effect. In Experiments 1 and 2, using moderately plausible and implausible statements, respectively, the test for the bias blind spot did not pass the significance threshold set for a two-step sequential analysis. Experiment 3 considered moderately plausible statements but with a larger sample of participants. Additionally, it compared actual performance after a two-day delay with participants' predictions for themselves and others. This time, we found clear evidence for a bias blind spot in the truth effect. Experiment 3 also showed that participants underestimated the magnitude of the truth effect, especially so for themselves, and that predictions and actual truth effect scores were not significantly related. Finally, an integrative analysis focusing on a more conservative between-participant approach found clear frequentist and Bayesian evidence for a bias blind spot. Overall, the results indicate that people (1) hold beliefs about the effect of repetition on truth judgments, (2) believe that this effect is larger for others than for themselves, (3) and underestimate the effect's magnitude, and (4) particularly so for themselves.

摘要

人们认为重复的陈述比新的陈述更真实

这就是真实效应。在三个预先注册的实验中(N=463),我们检验了人们是否期望重复对他人的真实判断的影响比对自己的影响更大:这是真实效应中的偏见盲点。在实验 1 和实验 2 中,分别使用了中等合理和不合理的陈述,偏见盲点的检验没有通过为两步序贯分析设定的显著阈值。实验 3 考虑了中等合理的陈述,但参与者样本更大。此外,它比较了两天后的实际表现与参与者对自己和他人的预测。这一次,我们在真实效应中发现了明显的偏见盲点证据。实验 3 还表明,参与者低估了真实效应的幅度,尤其是对自己的低估,并且预测和实际真实效应得分之间没有显著关系。最后,一项关注更保守的参与者间方法的综合分析发现,在真实效应中存在明显的实证和贝叶斯证据。总的来说,结果表明人们(1)对重复对真实判断的影响持有信念,(2)认为这种影响对他人比对自己更大,(3)并低估了这种影响的幅度,(4)特别是对自己的影响。

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