Sino-German College, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, People's Republic of China.
Business school, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai, 200093, People's Republic of China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Nov;30(55):117785-117803. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30480-1. Epub 2023 Oct 24.
Based on the background of comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development, this paper selects panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2019, uses the panel fixed effects model and panel threshold effect model, and discusses the nonlinear correlation mechanism between green investment, industrial structure, renewable energy, and low-carbon development of the transportation industry. The results show that, firstly, industrial structure and renewable energy can significantly promote the low-carbon development of the transportation industry, while green investment has a restraining effect on it (the main reason is that currently its scale is small and its investment in the transportation industry is relatively low). Secondly, industrial structure and renewable energy have a negative moderating and threshold effect in the process of green investment restraining low-carbon development of the transportation industry. Thirdly, these threshold effects have obvious regional heterogeneity characteristics. Based on this, decision-makers should not only continue to expand the scale of green investment and optimize resource allocation but also fully utilize the threshold characteristics of industrial structure and renewable energy in different regions to develop different strategies and achieve the promotion of green investment in low-carbon development of the transportation industry as soon as possible.
基于经济社会发展全面绿色转型的背景，本文选取了 2000-2019 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，运用面板固定效应模型和面板门槛效应模型，探讨了绿色投资、产业结构、可再生能源对交通运输业低碳发展的非线性关联机制。结果表明：一是产业结构和可再生能源均能显著促进交通运输业低碳发展，而绿色投资对其有抑制作用（主要原因是目前规模较小，在交通运输业中的投资相对较低）；二是在绿色投资抑制交通运输业低碳发展的过程中，产业结构和可再生能源具有负向的调节和门槛效应；三是这些门槛效应具有明显的区域异质性特征。基于此，决策者不仅要继续扩大绿色投资规模，优化资源配置，还要充分利用产业结构和可再生能源在不同区域的门槛特征，制定差异化策略，以尽快实现绿色投资对交通运输业低碳发展的促进作用。
