Emerging phylogeographic perspective on the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudo-nitzschia in coastal northern European waters and gateways to eastern Arctic seas: Causes, ecological consequences and socio-economic impacts.

The diatom Pseudo-nitzschia H. Peragallo is perhaps the most intensively researched genus of marine pennate diatoms, with respect to species diversity, life history strategies, toxigenicity, and biogeographical distribution. The global magnitude and consequences of harmful algal blooms (HABs) of Pseudo-nitzschia are particularly significant because of the high socioeconomic impacts and environmental and human health risks associated with the production of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA) among populations of many (although not all) species. This has led to enhanced monitoring and mitigation strategies for toxigenic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms and their toxins in recent years. Nevertheless, human adaptive actions based on future scenarios of bloom dynamics and proposed shifts in biogeographical distribution under climate-change regimes have not been implemented on a regional scale. In the CoCliME (Co-development of climate services for adaptation to changing marine ecosystems) program these issues were addressed with respect to past, current and anticipated future status of key HAB genera such as Pseudo-nitzschia and expected benefits of enhanced monitoring. Data on the distribution and frequency of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms in relation to DA occurrence and associated amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) events were evaluated in a contemporary and historical context over the past several decades from key northern CoCliME Case Study areas. The regional studies comprised the greater North Sea and adjacent Kattegat-Skagerrak and Norwegian Sea, eastern North Atlantic marginal seas and Arctic gateways, and the Baltic Sea. The first evidence of possible biogeographical expansion of Pseudo-nitzschia taxa into frontier eastern Arctic gateways was provided from DNA barcoding signatures. Key climate change indicators, such as salinity, temperature, and water-column stratification were identified as drivers of upwelling and advection related to the distribution of regional Pseudo-nitzschia blooms. The possible influence of changing variables on bloom dynamics, magnitude, frequency and spatial and temporal distribution were interpreted in the context of regional ocean climate models. These climate change indicators may play key roles in selecting for the occurrence and diversity of Pseudo-nitzschia species within the broader microeukaryote communities. Shifts to higher temperature and lower salinity regimes predicted for the southern North Sea indicate the potential for high-magnitude Pseudo-nitzschia blooms, currently absent from this area. Ecological and socioeconomic impacts of Pseudo-nitzschia blooms are evaluated with reference to effects on fisheries and mariculture resources and coastal ecosystem function. Where feasible, effective adaptation strategies are proposed herein as emerging climate services for the northern CoCLiME region.