Centre for Ecology and Conservation, Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Penryn, United Kingdom.
PLoS Biol. 2023 Nov 14;21(11):e3002361. doi: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3002361. eCollection 2023 Nov.
More species live outside their native range than at any point in human history. Yet, there is little understanding of the geographic regions that will be threatened if these species continue to spread, nor of whether they will spread. We predict the world's terrestrial regions to which 833 naturalised plants, birds, and mammals are most imminently likely to spread, and investigate what factors have hastened or slowed their spread to date. There is huge potential for further spread of naturalised birds in North America, mammals in Eastern Europe, and plants in North America, Eastern Europe, and Australia. Introduction history, dispersal, and the spatial distribution of suitable areas are more important predictors of species spread than traits corresponding to habitat usage or biotic interactions. Natural dispersal has driven spread in birds more than in plants. Whether these taxa continue to spread more widely depends partially on connectivity of suitable environments. Plants show the clearest invasion lag, and the putative importance of human transportation indicates opportunities to slow their spread. Despite strong predictive effects, questions remain, particularly why so many birds in North America do not occupy climatically suitable areas close to their existing ranges.
比以往任何时候都有更多的物种生活在其原生范围之外。然而,人们对这些物种如果继续扩散,哪些地理区域将受到威胁,以及它们是否会扩散,知之甚少。我们预测了 833 种归化植物、鸟类和哺乳动物最有可能迅速扩散到的世界陆地区域,并调查了哪些因素加速或减缓了它们的扩散速度。北美归化鸟类、东欧哺乳动物以及北美、东欧和澳大利亚归化植物进一步扩散的潜力巨大。物种扩散的更重要预测因子是引入历史、扩散以及适宜区域的空间分布,而不是与栖息地使用或生物相互作用相对应的特征。自然扩散在鸟类中的作用大于在植物中的作用。这些类群是否会继续更广泛地扩散,部分取决于适宜环境的连通性。植物表现出最明显的入侵滞后,而人类运输的潜在重要性表明有机会减缓它们的扩散。尽管具有很强的预测效果,但仍存在一些问题,特别是为什么北美的许多鸟类不占据与其现有范围接近的气候适宜地区。