Section for Science of Complex Systems, CeDAS, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Complexity Science Hub Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
PLoS One. 2023 Nov 15;18(11):e0293239. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0293239. eCollection 2023.
Concerns about the integrity of Turkey's elections have increased with the recent transition from a parliamentary democracy to an executive presidency under Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Election forensics tools are used to identify statistical traces of certain types of electoral fraud, providing important information about the integrity and validity of democratic elections. Such analyses of the 2017 and 2018 Turkish elections revealed that malpractices such as ballot stuffing or voter manipulation may indeed have played a significant role in determining the election results. Here, we apply election forensic statistical tests for ballot stuffing and voter manipulation to the results of the 2023 presidential election in Turkey. We find that both rounds of the 2023 presidential election exhibit similar statistical irregularities to those observed in the 2018 presidential election, however the magnitude of these distortions has decreased. We estimate that 2.4% (SD 1.9%) and 1.9% (SD 1.7%) of electoral units may have been affected by ballot stuffing practices in favour of Erdoğan in the first and second rounds, respectively, compared to 8.5% (SD 3.9%) in 2018. Areas with smaller polling stations and fewer ballot boxes had significantly inflated votes and turnout, again, in favor of Erdoğan. Furthermore, electoral districts with two or fewer ballot boxes were more likely to show large swings in vote shares in favour of Erdoğan from the first to the second round. Based on a statistical model, it is estimated that these shifts account for 342,000 additional ballots (SD 4,900) or 0.64% for Erdoğan, which is lower than the 4.36% margin by which Erdoğan was victorious. Our results suggest that Turkish elections continue to be riddled with statistical irregularities, that may be indicative of electoral fraud.
对土耳其选举完整性的担忧随着雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安（Recep Tayyip Erdoğan）领导下从议会民主制向总统制的最近过渡而增加。选举取证工具用于识别某些类型选举舞弊的统计痕迹，为民主选举的完整性和有效性提供重要信息。对 2017 年和 2018 年土耳其选举的此类分析表明，选票填充或选民操纵等不当行为可能确实在决定选举结果方面发挥了重要作用。在这里，我们将选票填充和选民操纵的选举取证统计测试应用于 2023 年土耳其总统选举的结果。我们发现，2023 年总统选举的两轮都表现出与 2018 年总统选举相似的统计异常，但这些扭曲的程度有所降低。我们估计，在第一轮和第二轮选举中，与 2018 年的 8.5%（SD3.9%）相比，分别有 2.4%（SD1.9%）和 1.9%（SD1.7%）的选区可能受到了有利于埃尔多安的选票填充做法的影响。投票站和投票箱较少的地区的投票和投票率明显膨胀，同样有利于埃尔多安。此外，拥有两个或更少投票箱的选区更有可能出现第一轮到第二轮埃尔多安的选票份额大幅偏向的情况。根据一个统计模型，估计这些转变使埃尔多安额外获得了 342,000 张选票（SD4,900）或 0.64%，低于埃尔多安以 4.36%的优势获胜的差距。我们的结果表明，土耳其选举继续存在统计异常，这可能表明存在选举舞弊。
