Department of Economics and Finance, Sunway Business School, Sunway University, Petaling Jaya, Malaysia.
Adnan Kassar School of Business, Lebanese American University, Beirut, Lebanon.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Dec;30(58):122580-122600. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30687-2. Epub 2023 Nov 16.
Given the significance of fostering sustainable climate conditions for long-term economic stability and financial resilience, this study probes the connection between climate-related policy ambiguity and its implications for currency valuation. In doing so, the current study investigates the interconnected effects of climate policy on economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk with the currency valuation in ASEAN countries. Employing wavelet coherence analysis and partial wavelet coherence analysis, the paper highlights the complex relationships among these factors and their implications for exchange rate fluctuations. Using data from 2000 to 2022, the findings reveal that climate policy uncertainty is an important driver of exchange rate movements, amplifying the impact of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the study identifies a vicious cycle between climate policy uncertainty and exchange rates, potentially impacting the region's macroeconomic stability and long-term economic growth. The study presents several policy recommendations to address economic and climate policy uncertainties comprehensively based on the findings. These recommendations include establishing national frameworks for climate risk management, enhancing policy credibility and macroeconomic stability, and promoting regional integration to mitigate the influence of geopolitical risk on exchange rates.
鉴于为长期经济稳定和金融弹性培育可持续气候条件的重要性，本研究探讨了气候相关政策模糊性与其对货币估值的影响之间的联系。为此，本研究调查了气候政策对东盟国家经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险与货币估值的相互影响。本文采用小波相干分析和偏小波相干分析，强调了这些因素之间的复杂关系及其对汇率波动的影响。利用 2000 年至 2022 年的数据，研究结果表明，气候政策不确定性是汇率变动的重要驱动因素，放大了经济政策不确定性和地缘政治风险的影响。此外，该研究还发现气候政策不确定性与汇率之间存在恶性循环，可能会影响该地区的宏观经济稳定和长期经济增长。本研究根据研究结果提出了一些政策建议，以全面应对经济和气候政策的不确定性。这些建议包括建立国家气候风险管理框架、增强政策可信度和宏观经济稳定性，以及促进区域一体化，以减轻地缘政治风险对汇率的影响。
