School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, 500 Yarra Boulevard, Richmond, Victoria 3121, Australia; School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia; Melbourne Water Corporation, 990 La Trobe Street, Docklands, Victoria 3008, Australia.
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Science, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
Water Res. 2023 Dec 1;247:120703. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2023.120703. Epub 2023 Oct 6.
Climate change and urbanization threaten streams and the biodiversity that rely upon them worldwide. Emissions of greenhouse gases are causing air and sea surface temperatures to increase, and even small areas of urbanization are degrading stream biodiversity, water quality and hydrology. However, empirical evidence of how increasing air temperatures and urbanization together affect stream temperatures over time and their relative influence on stream temperatures is limited. This study quantifies changes in stream temperatures in a region in South-East Australia with an urban-agricultural-forest landcover gradient and where increasing air temperatures have been observed. Using Random Forest models we identify air temperature and urbanization drive increasing stream temperatures and that their combined effects are larger than their individual effects occurring alone. Furthermore, we identify potential mitigation measures useful for waterway managers and policy makers. The results show that both local and global solutions are needed to reduce future increases to stream temperature.
气候变化和城市化正在威胁全球范围内的溪流和依赖它们的生物多样性。温室气体的排放正在导致空气和海表面温度升高，即使是城市化的小面积也在破坏溪流的生物多样性、水质和水文学。然而，关于气温升高和城市化如何共同影响溪流温度随时间的变化以及它们对溪流温度相对影响的经验证据是有限的。本研究量化了澳大利亚东南部一个具有城市-农业-森林土地覆盖梯度的地区的溪流温度变化，该地区观察到气温升高。使用随机森林模型，我们发现空气温度和城市化导致溪流温度升高，它们的综合影响大于单独作用的影响。此外，我们还确定了对水道管理者和政策制定者有用的潜在缓解措施。结果表明，需要采取地方和全球解决方案来减少未来溪流温度的上升。
