School of Water and Environment, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effects in Arid Region, Ministry of Education, Chang'an University, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Dec;30(59):123480-123496. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30606-5. Epub 2023 Nov 21.
Due to global warming, there evolves a global consensus and urgent need on carbon emission mitigations, especially in developing countries. We investigated the spatiotemporal characteristics of carbon emissions induced by land use change in Shaanxi at the city level, from 2000 to 2020, by combining direct and indirect emission calculation methods with correction coefficients. In addition, we evaluated the impact of 10 different factors through the geodetector model and their spatial heterogeneity with the geographic weighted regression (GWR) model. Our results showed that the carbon emissions and carbon intensity of Shaanxi had increased overall in the study period but with a decreased growth rate during each 5-year period: 2000-2005, 2005-2010, 2010-2015, and 2015-2020. In terms of carbon emissions, the conversion of croplands into built-up land contributed the most. The spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Shaanxi was ranked as follows: Central Shaanxi > Northern Shaanxi > Southern Shaanxi. Local spatial agglomeration was reflected in the cold spots around Xi'an, and hot spots around Yulin. With respect to the principal driving factors, the gross domestic product (GDP) was the dominant factor affecting most of the carbon emissions induced by land cover and land use change in Shaanxi, and socioeconomic factors generally had a greater influence than natural factors. Socioeconomic variables also showed evident spatial heterogeneity in carbon emissions. The results of this study may aid in the formulation of land use policy that is based on reducing carbon emissions in developing areas of China, as well as contribute to transitioning into a "low-carbon" economy.
由于全球变暖，全球范围内形成了减少碳排放的共识，并对此产生了迫切需求，尤其是在发展中国家。本研究结合直接排放和间接排放计算方法，并引入修正系数，以城市为尺度，调查了 2000—2020 年陕西省土地利用变化引起的碳排放的时空特征。此外，通过地理探测器模型评估了 10 种不同因素的影响，并通过地理加权回归（GWR）模型评估了其空间异质性。结果表明，在研究期间，陕西省的碳排放量和碳强度总体上呈上升趋势，但每个 5 年期间的增长率都有所下降：2000—2005 年、2005—2010 年、2010—2015 年和 2015—2020 年。就碳排放量而言，耕地向建设用地的转化贡献最大。陕西省的碳排放量空间分布依次为：关中地区＞陕北地区＞陕南地区。局部空间集聚反映在西安周边的冷点和榆林周边的热点。就主要驱动因素而言，国内生产总值（GDP）是影响陕西省土地覆盖和土地利用变化引起的大部分碳排放的主导因素，社会经济因素对碳排放的影响通常大于自然因素。社会经济变量在碳排放方面也表现出明显的空间异质性。本研究结果可为中国欠发达地区制定基于减少碳排放的土地利用政策提供参考，并有助于向“低碳”经济转型。
