Safety Promotion and Injury Prevention Research Centre, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
School of Medicine, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2023 Nov 20;13(1):20338. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-46702-y.
High body mass index (BMI), or excess body weight (EBW), represents a significant risk factor for a range of diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and cancers. The study sought to determine the burden of diseases attributable to EBW in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1990 and 2019. The analysis also included an exploration of this burden by age, sex, underlying cause, and sociodemographic index (SDI). We utilized publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2019 to identify the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of diseases associated with EBW in MENA, spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. The GBD estimated the mean BMI and the prevalence of EBW using hierarchical mixed-effects regression, followed by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to determine the most accurate BMI distribution through comparison with actual data. In 2019, there were an estimated 538.4 thousand deaths (95% UI 369.9-712.3) and 17.9 million DALYs (12.9-23.1) attributable to EBW in the region. The DALYs attributable to EBW were higher in men (9.3 million [6.5-12.4]) than in women (8.5 million [6.4-10.8]). The age-standardized death and DALY rates for the diseases associated with EBW increased by 5.1% (- 9.0-25.9) and 8.3% (- 6.5-28.8), respectively, during the study period which was not significant. Egypt had the highest age-standardized mortality rate due to EBW (217.7 [140.0, 307.8]), while Yemen (88.6 [45.9, 143.5]) had the lowest. In 2019, the highest number of DALYs occurred among individuals aged 60 to 64 years old. Furthermore, we found a positive association between a nation's SDI and the age-standardized DALY rate linked to EBW. Cardiovascular disease emerged as the leading contributor to the EBW burden in MENA. The disease burden attributable to EBW showed a non-significant increase in MENA from 1990 to 2019.
高身体质量指数（BMI）或超重（EBW）是一系列疾病的重要危险因素，包括心血管疾病和癌症。本研究旨在确定中东和北非（MENA）地区 1990 年至 2019 年期间由 EBW 引起的疾病负担。分析还包括按年龄、性别、潜在原因和社会人口指数（SDI）对这一负担进行的探讨。我们利用全球疾病负担（GBD）研究 2019 年公布的数据，确定了中东和北非地区 1990 年至 2019 年期间与 EBW 相关的疾病的死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALY）。GBD 使用分层混合效应回归估计平均 BMI 和 EBW 的流行率，然后使用时空高斯过程回归通过与实际数据比较来确定最准确的 BMI 分布。2019 年，该地区估计有 53.84 万人（95%UI 36.99-712.3）死亡和 1790 万人（1290-2310）伤残调整生命年（DALY）归因于 EBW。与 EBW 相关的疾病的 DALY 在男性（930 万[650-1240]）中高于女性（850 万[640-1080]）。研究期间，与 EBW 相关的疾病的年龄标准化死亡率和 DALY 率分别上升了 5.1%（-9.0-25.9）和 8.3%（-6.5-28.8），但无统计学意义。埃及的 EBW 年龄标准化死亡率最高（217.7[140.0, 307.8]），而也门（88.6[45.9, 143.5]）的死亡率最低。2019 年，60 至 64 岁人群的 DALY 最多。此外，我们发现一个国家的 SDI 与 EBW 相关的年龄标准化 DALY 率之间存在正相关关系。心血管疾病是中东和北非地区 EBW 负担的主要原因。1990 年至 2019 年，中东和北非地区 EBW 造成的疾病负担呈非显著上升趋势。
