Disease progression in the first 5 years of treatment in multiple sclerosis: Predictive value of early brain and lesion volume changes.

BACKGROUND

Whether the degree of inflammation (and its resolution) and neurodegeneration after treatment initiation predicts disease progression in multiple sclerosis (MS) remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the predictive value of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-derived brain and lesion volume (LV) changes in years 1 and 2 of treatment for disease progression.

METHODS

Patients receiving early interferon beta-1a treatment in REFLEX/REFLEXION ( = 262) were included. Predictive regression models included new/enlarging LV (positive activity), disappearing/shrinking LV (negative activity), and global/central atrophy during years 1 and 2.

RESULTS

Faster global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy and positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 related to an increased probability and faster conversion to clinically definite multiple sclerosis (CDMS). Negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2 were predictive of confirmed disability progression (9-Hole Peg Test). Positive lesion activity in year 2 was predictive of faster global atrophy, while positive lesion activity in years 1 and 2 was predictive of faster central atrophy.

CONCLUSIONS

A higher degree of global atrophy and/or pseudo-atrophy in year 1 was predictive of CDMS. Positive lesion activity in any year was related to CDMS and neurodegeneration. Disability was related to negative lesion activity in year 1 and slower central atrophy in year 2.