Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rakai Health Sciences Program, Kalisizo, Uganda.
Nat Microbiol. 2024 Jan;9(1):35-54. doi: 10.1038/s41564-023-01530-8. Epub 2023 Dec 5.
HIV incidence in eastern and southern Africa has historically been concentrated among girls and women aged 15-24 years. As new cases decline with HIV interventions, population-level infection dynamics may shift by age and gender. Here, we integrated population-based surveillance of 38,749 participants in the Rakai Community Cohort Study and longitudinal deep-sequence viral phylogenetics to assess how HIV incidence and population groups driving transmission have changed from 2003 to 2018 in Uganda. We observed 1,117 individuals in the incidence cohort and 1,978 individuals in the transmission cohort. HIV viral suppression increased more rapidly in women than men, however incidence declined more slowly in women than men. We found that age-specific transmission flows shifted: whereas HIV transmission to girls and women (aged 15-24 years) from older men declined by about one-third, transmission to women (aged 25-34 years) from men that were 0-6 years older increased by half in 2003 to 2018. Based on changes in transmission flows, we estimated that closing the gender gap in viral suppression could have reduced HIV incidence in women by half in 2018. This study suggests that HIV programmes to increase HIV suppression in men are critical to reduce incidence in women, close gender gaps in infection burden and improve men's health in Africa.
在东非和南非,艾滋病毒的发病率历来集中在 15-24 岁的女孩和妇女中。随着艾滋病毒干预措施的新病例减少,人群感染动态可能会按年龄和性别发生变化。在这里,我们整合了基于人群的对来自 38749 名参与者的 Rakai 社区队列研究和纵向深度序列病毒系统发生学的监测,以评估艾滋病毒发病率和传播群体在 2003 年至 2018 年间在乌干达如何发生变化。我们观察到 1117 名发病队列中的个体和 1978 名传播队列中的个体。女性的 HIV 病毒抑制率比男性增长更快,然而女性的发病率下降速度比男性更慢。我们发现,特定年龄的传播流发生了变化:虽然来自年长男性的艾滋病毒向 15-24 岁的女孩和妇女的传播减少了约三分之一,但来自年长 0-6 岁男性的艾滋病毒向 25-34 岁的妇女的传播增加了一半。基于传播流的变化,我们估计,在 2018 年,缩小病毒抑制方面的性别差距可能使女性的艾滋病毒发病率降低一半。这项研究表明,增加男性 HIV 病毒抑制率的艾滋病毒规划对于降低女性的发病率、缩小感染负担方面的性别差距以及改善非洲男性的健康状况至关重要。
N Engl J Med. 2017-11-30
Front Reprod Health. 2025-8-7
J Public Health Afr. 2025-4-30
Npj Viruses. 2024-3-6
PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025-3-10
J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr. 2022-7-1
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021-7-13