Zhou Chuan-Min, Qin Xiang-Rong, Yan Li-Na, Jiang Yuan, Yu Xue-Jie
Department of Infectious Diseases, Zhongnan Hospital, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China.
State Key Laboratory of Virology, School of Health Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China.
Infect Med (Beijing). 2022 Mar 4;1(1):31-39. doi: 10.1016/j.imj.2021.08.001. eCollection 2022 Mar.
The pandemic COVID-19 is certainly one of the most severe infectious diseases in human history. In the last 2 years, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 418.6 million confirmed cases and 5.8 million deaths worldwide. Young people make up the majority of all infected COVID-19 cases, but the mortality rate is relatively lower compared to older age groups. Currently, about 55.04% individuals have been fully vaccinated rapidly approaching to herd immunity globally. The challenge is that new SARS-CoV-2 variants with potential to evade immunity from natural infection or vaccine continue to emerge. Breakthrough infections have occurred in both SARS-CoV-2 naturally infected and vaccinated individuals, but breakthrough infections tended to exhibit mild or asymptomatic symptoms and lower mortality rates. Therefore, immunity from natural infection or vaccination can reduce SARS-CoV-2 pathogenicity, but neither can completely prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection/reinfection. Fortunately, the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 continue to decline. The 7-day average cumulative case fatality of COVID-19 has decreased from 12.3% on the February 25, 2020, to 0.27% on January 09, 2022, which could be related to a decreased SARS-CoV-2 variant virulence, vaccine immunization, and/or better treatment of patients. In conclusion, elimination of SARS-CoV-2 in the world could be impossible or at least an arduous task with a long way to go. The best strategy to prevent COVID-19 pandemic is to expand inoculation rate of effective vaccines. As the population reaches herd immunity, the mortality rate of COVID-19 may continue to decrease, and COVID-19 could eventually become another common cold.
新冠疫情无疑是人类历史上最严重的传染病之一。在过去两年里,新冠疫情已在全球造成超过4.186亿确诊病例和580万例死亡。年轻人占所有新冠感染病例的大多数,但与老年人群体相比,死亡率相对较低。目前,全球约55.04%的人已完全接种疫苗,迅速接近群体免疫。挑战在于,具有逃避自然感染或疫苗免疫潜力的新型严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)变种不断出现。SARS-CoV-2自然感染和接种疫苗的个体均出现了突破性感染,但突破性感染往往表现为轻症或无症状,且死亡率较低。因此,自然感染或接种疫苗产生的免疫力可降低SARS-CoV-2的致病性,但两者都不能完全预防SARS-CoV-2感染/再感染。幸运的是,新冠的发病率和死亡率持续下降。新冠的7天平均累计病死率已从2020年2月25日的12.3%降至2022年1月9日的0.27%,这可能与SARS-CoV-2变种毒力下降、疫苗接种和/或对患者的更好治疗有关。总之,在全球消除SARS-CoV-2可能是不可能的,或者至少是一项艰巨的任务,还有很长的路要走。预防新冠疫情的最佳策略是提高有效疫苗的接种率。随着人群达到群体免疫,新冠的死亡率可能会继续下降,新冠最终可能会变成另一种普通感冒。