School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Normal University, Chongqing 401331, China.
School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, 400030, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Feb;351:119720. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.119720. Epub 2023 Dec 14.
This paper constructs a carbon quota allocation index that takes into account equity, efficiency and ecological construction, and calculates carbon emissions and energy consumption data in important periods based on the expected carbon emission targets and economic and social development indicators of the Chinese government. Based on the calculated carbon emissions, the zero-sum game data Envelopment model (ZSG-DEA) is used to discuss the initial allocation of regional quotas and the optimal carbon quota scheme. The results show that:(1) there is a large gap between the optimal carbon quota and the initial carbon quota allocation in Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangsu and other provinces in 2025, and the implementation of emission reduction measures should be accelerated. (2) By 2030, the final allocation of Beijing, Tianjin, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shanghai, Ningxia, Liaoning and Xinjiang will be positive. The provinces with negative final allocation should carry out the work of carbon peak as soon as possible to avoid increasing the pressure of emission reduction in the future. (3) The central region faces greater pressure of emission reduction, while the western region can accept the transfer of carbon emissions from other regions over time. The research conclusions have important policy implications for establishing a fair and effective carbon quota allocation mechanism, achieving the national total carbon emission control target, stimulating the vitality of the unified carbon market, and promoting regional coordinated emission reduction.
本文构建了一个考虑公平、效率和生态建设的碳配额分配指标，根据中国政府的预期碳排放量目标和经济社会发展指标，计算了重要时期的碳排放和能源消耗数据。基于计算出的碳排放，利用零和博弈数据包络分析模型（ZSG-DEA）探讨了区域配额的初始分配和最优碳配额方案。结果表明：（1）2025 年，山东、广东、江苏等省份的最优碳配额与初始碳配额分配之间存在较大差距，应加快减排措施的实施。（2）到 2030 年，北京、天津、内蒙古、青海、上海、宁夏、辽宁和新疆的最终配额分配将为正。最终配额分配为负的省份应尽快开展碳达峰工作，避免未来减排压力增加。（3）中部地区面临更大的减排压力，而西部地区可以随着时间的推移接受来自其他地区的碳排放转移。研究结论对建立公平有效的碳配额分配机制、实现国家总碳排放量控制目标、激发统一碳市场活力、促进区域协调减排具有重要政策意义。
