Programa de Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Av. Augusto Corrêa 01, Guamá, Belém, PA, CEP 66075-110, Brazil.
Coordenação em Zoologia, Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi, Av. Perimetral, 1901, Terra Firme, Belém, PA, CEP 66077 830, Brazil.
Environ Monit Assess. 2023 Dec 19;196(1):61. doi: 10.1007/s10661-023-12174-w.
Climate change affects ecosystems in different ways. These effects are particularly worrying in the Neotropical region, where species are most vulnerable to these changes because they live closer to their thermal safety limits. Thus, establishing conservation priorities, particularly for the definition of protected areas (PAs), is a priority. However, some PA systems within the Neotropics are ineffective even under the present environmental conditions. Here, we test the effectiveness of a PA system, within an ecotone in northern Brazil, in protecting 24 endangered bird species under current and future (RCP8.5) climatic scenarios. We used species distribution modeling and dispersal corridor modeling to describe the priority areas for conservation of these species. Our results indicate that several threatened bird taxa are and will potentially be protected (i.e., occur within PAs). Nonetheless, the amount of protected area is insufficient to maintain the species in the ecotone. Moreover, most taxa will probably present drastic declines in their range sizes; some are even predicted to go globally extinct soon. Thus, we highlight the location of a potentially effective system of dispersal corridors that connects PAs in the ecotone. We reinforce the need to implement public policies and raise public awareness to maintain PAs and mitigate anthropogenic effects within them, corridors, and adjacent areas, aiming to conserve the richness and diversity of these already threatened species.
气候变化以不同的方式影响生态系统。这些影响在新热带地区尤为令人担忧，因为那里的物种最容易受到这些变化的影响，因为它们更接近热安全极限。因此，确定保护优先事项，特别是为保护地（PA）定义保护优先事项，是当务之急。然而，即使在目前的环境条件下，新热带地区的一些 PA 系统也没有效果。在这里，我们在巴西北部的一个生态交错带内测试了一个 PA 系统的有效性，以保护当前和未来（RCP8.5）气候情景下的 24 种濒危鸟类物种。我们使用物种分布模型和扩散走廊模型来描述这些物种保护的优先区域。我们的结果表明，一些受威胁的鸟类分类群现在和将来都将受到保护（即在 PA 内发生）。尽管如此，保护区的数量仍然不足以维持生态交错带中的物种。此外，大多数分类群的分布范围可能会急剧缩小；有些甚至预计很快就会在全球范围内灭绝。因此，我们强调了一个潜在有效的扩散走廊系统的位置，该系统连接了生态交错带内的 PA。我们强调需要实施公共政策和提高公众意识，以维持保护区及其内部、走廊和相邻地区的人类活动，旨在保护这些已经受到威胁的物种的丰富性和多样性。
