Predicting the future of threatened birds from a Neotropical ecotone area.

Climate change affects ecosystems in different ways. These effects are particularly worrying in the Neotropical region, where species are most vulnerable to these changes because they live closer to their thermal safety limits. Thus, establishing conservation priorities, particularly for the definition of protected areas (PAs), is a priority. However, some PA systems within the Neotropics are ineffective even under the present environmental conditions. Here, we test the effectiveness of a PA system, within an ecotone in northern Brazil, in protecting 24 endangered bird species under current and future (RCP8.5) climatic scenarios. We used species distribution modeling and dispersal corridor modeling to describe the priority areas for conservation of these species. Our results indicate that several threatened bird taxa are and will potentially be protected (i.e., occur within PAs). Nonetheless, the amount of protected area is insufficient to maintain the species in the ecotone. Moreover, most taxa will probably present drastic declines in their range sizes; some are even predicted to go globally extinct soon. Thus, we highlight the location of a potentially effective system of dispersal corridors that connects PAs in the ecotone. We reinforce the need to implement public policies and raise public awareness to maintain PAs and mitigate anthropogenic effects within them, corridors, and adjacent areas, aiming to conserve the richness and diversity of these already threatened species.