Laboratório de Biogeografia da Conservação e Macroecologia, Universidade Federal do Pará, Belém, Brazil.
Departamento de Biologia, Instituto Federal Goiano, Urutaí, Goiás, Brazil.
PeerJ. 2023 Feb 27;11:e14882. doi: 10.7717/peerj.14882. eCollection 2023.
Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.
We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.
We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.
过去几十年来，全球气候模式发生了变化。这些变化主要与温度升高和降雨制度变化有关，这些变化变得更加多变和极端。
我们旨在评估未来气候模式变化对 19 种特有或濒危鸟类的分布的影响。我们评估了当前保护区（PAs）是否足够，以及它们在未来是否仍将保持有效性。此外，我们确定了气候稳定的区域，这些区域可能成为多种物种的避难所。
我们观察到，在这项研究中分析的 Caatinga 鸟类物种中，有 84%和 87%的物种将在未来情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）中面临其预测范围分布区域的大面积损失。我们还观察到，即使考虑到所有保护区域类别，当前的 Caatinga 保护区在保护这些物种方面在现在和未来情景中都无效。然而，仍然可以为保护分配一些合适的区域，这些区域有植被残余和大量的物种。因此，我们的研究为保护行动铺平了道路，通过选择更合适的保护区来减轻因气候变化导致的当前和未来的灭绝。
