Associations between plasma metal/metalloid mixtures and the risk of central obesity: A prospective cohort study of Chinese adults.

Central obesity has increased rapidly over the past decade and posed a substantial disease burden worldwide. Exposure to metals/metalloids has been acknowledged to be involved in the development of central obesity through regulation of cortisol, insulin resistance, and glucocorticoid receptor reduction. Despite the importance, it is lack of prospective study which comprehensively evaluate the relations between multiple metals exposure and central obesity. We explored the prospective associations of plasma metal concentrations with central obesity in a prospective study of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort. The present study included 2127 participants with a 6.87-year mean follow-up duration. We measured 23 plasma metal/metalloid concentrations at baseline. The associations between metals and incident central obesity were examined utilizing the Cox proportional hazard regression in single and multiple metals models. Additionally, we applied elastic net (ENET), Bayesian kernel machine regression (BKMR), plasma metal score (PMS), and quantile-based g-computation (Qgcomp) models to explore the joint associations of metal mixtures with central obesity. After adjusting potential confounders, we found significant associations of plasma manganese (Mn) and thallium (Tl) concentrations with a higher risk of central obesity, whereas plasma rubidium (Rb) concentration was associated with a lower risk of central obesity both in single and multiple metals models (all FDR <0.05). The ENET and Qqcomp models verified similar metals (Mn, Rb, and Tl) as important predictors for central obesity. The results of both BKMR model and PMS suggested cumulative exposure to metal mixtures was associated with a higher risk of central obesity. Our findings suggested that co-exposure to metals was associated with a higher risk of central obesity. This study expands our knowledge that the management of metals/metalloids exposure may be beneficial for the prevention of new-onset central obesity, which may subsequently alleviate the disease burden of late-life health outcomes.