How pedigree errors affect genetic evaluations and validation statistics.

Pedigrees used in genetic evaluations contain errors. Because of such errors, assumptions regarding the relatedness among individuals in genetic evaluation models are wrong. Consequences of that have been investigated in earlier studies focusing on models that did not account for genomic information yet. The objective of this work was to investigate the effects of pedigree errors on the results from genetic evaluations using the single-step model, and the effect of such effects on results from validation studies with forward prediction. We used a real pedigree (n = 361,980) and real genotypes (n = 25,950) of Fleckvieh cattle, sampled in a way to provide a good consistency between pedigree and genomic relationships. Given the real pedigree and genotypes, true breeding values (TBV) were simulated to have a covariance structure equal to the matrix H assumed in a single-step model. Based on TBV, phenotypes were simulated with a heritability of 0.25. Genetic evaluations were conducted with a conventional animal model (i.e., without genomic information) and a single-step animal model under scenarios using either the correct pedigree or a pedigree containing 5%, 10%, or 20% of wrong records. Wrong records were simulated by randomly assigning wrong sires to nongenotyped females. The increasing rates of pedigree errors led to decreasing correlations between TBV and EBV and lower standard deviations of predictions. Less variation was observed because pedigree errors operate actually as a random exchange of daughters among bulls, making them look more similar to each other than they actually are. This occurs of course only when animals have progeny. Therefore, this decreased variation was more pronounced for progeny tested bulls than for young selection candidates. In a forward prediction validation scenario, the stronger decrease in variation when animals get progeny caused an apparent inflation of early predictions. This phenomenon may contribute to the usually observed problem of inflation of early predictions observed in validation studies.