Department of Outpatient, Taihe Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Shiyan 442000, China.
Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Ecotoxicol Environ Saf. 2024 Jan 15;270:115843. doi: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2023.115843. Epub 2023 Dec 22.
BACKGROUND: Cohort evidence linking long-term ozone (O) exposure to mortality remained largely mixed worldwide and was extensively deficient in densely-populated Asia. This study aimed to assess the long-term effects of O exposure on all-cause mortality among Chinese adults, as well as to examine potential regional heterogeneity across the globe. METHODS: A national dynamic cohort of 42153 adults aged 16+ years were recruited from 25 provinces across Chinese mainland and followed up during 2010-2018. Annual warm-season (April-September) O and year-round co-pollutants (i.e., nitrogen dioxide [NO] and fine particulate matter [PM]) were simulated through validated spatial-temporal prediction models and were assigned to each enrollee in each calendar year. Cox proportional hazards models with time-varying exposures were employed to assess the O-mortality association. Concentration-response (C-R) curves were fitted by natural cubic spline function to investigate the potential nonlinear association. Both single-pollutant model and co-pollutant models additionally adjusting for PM and/or NO were employed to examine the robustness of the estimated association. The random-effect meta-analysis was adopted to pool effect estimates from the current and prior population-based cohorts (n = 29), and pooled C-R curves were fitted through the meta-smoothing approach by regions. RESULTS: The study population comprised of 42153 participants who contributed 258921.5 person-years at risk (median 6.4 years), of whom 2382 death events occurred during study period. Participants were exposed to an annual average of 51.4 ppb (range: 22.7-74.4 ppb) of warm-season O concentration. In the single-pollutant model, a significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) of 1.098 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.023-1.179) was associated with a 10-ppb rise in O exposure. Associations remained robust to additional adjustments of co-pollutants, with HRs of 1.099 (95% CI: 1.023-1.180) in bi-pollutant model (+PM) and 1.093 (95% CI: 1.018-1.174) in tri-pollutant model (+PM+NO), respectively. A J-shaped C-R relationship was identified among Chinese general population, suggesting significant excess mortality risk at high ozone exposure only. The combined C-R curves from Asia (n = 4) and North America (n = 17) demonstrated an overall increased risk of all-cause mortality with O exposure, with pooled HRs of 1.124 (95% CI: 0.966-1.307) and 1.023 (95% CI: 1.007-1.039) per 10-ppb rise, respectively. Conversely, an opposite association was observed in Europe (n = 8, HR: 0.914 [95% CI: 0.860-0.972]), suggesting significant heterogeneity across regions (P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study provided national evidence that high O exposure may curtail long-term survival of Chinese general population. Great between-region heterogeneity of pooled O-mortality was identified across North America, Europe, and Asia.
背景:全球范围内,将长期臭氧(O)暴露与死亡率联系起来的队列证据仍然存在很大的差异,并且在人口密集的亚洲地区存在严重的不足。本研究旨在评估 O 暴露对中国成年人全因死亡率的长期影响,并考察全球范围内潜在的区域异质性。
方法:本研究招募了来自中国内地 25 个省份的 42153 名 16 岁及以上的成年人,组成一个全国性动态队列,随访时间为 2010 年至 2018 年。通过验证过的时空预测模型模拟了每年暖季(4 月至 9 月)的 O 和全年的共污染物(即二氧化氮[NO]和细颗粒物[PM]),并将其分配给每个参与者在每个日历年内。采用时变暴露的 Cox 比例风险模型评估 O 与死亡率的关联。采用自然三次样条函数拟合浓度-反应(C-R)曲线,以研究潜在的非线性关联。单污染物模型和共污染物模型(同时调整 PM 和/或 NO)均被采用,以检验估计关联的稳健性。采用随机效应荟萃分析,将当前和先前基于人群的队列(n=29)的效应估计值进行合并,并通过按地区进行荟萃平滑拟合汇总 C-R 曲线。
结果:研究人群由 42153 名参与者组成,他们在研究期间共贡献了 258921.5 人年的风险暴露(中位数 6.4 年),其中 2382 人发生死亡事件。参与者每年平均暴露于 51.4 ppb(范围:22.7-74.4 ppb)的暖季 O 浓度。在单污染物模型中,O 暴露每增加 10 ppb,与死亡率的比值比(HR)显著增加 1.098(95%置信区间[CI]:1.023-1.179)。在双污染物模型(+PM)和三污染物模型(+PM+NO)中,调整共污染物后的关联仍然稳健,HR 分别为 1.099(95% CI:1.023-1.180)和 1.093(95% CI:1.018-1.174)。在普通人群中,发现了 C-R 关系呈 J 型,提示仅在高臭氧暴露时存在显著的超额死亡风险。来自亚洲(n=4)和北美的汇总 C-R 曲线(n=17)表明,随着 O 暴露,全因死亡率的风险整体增加,合并的 HR 分别为 1.124(95% CI:0.966-1.307)和 1.023(95% CI:1.007-1.039)。相反,在欧洲(n=8,HR:0.914[95% CI:0.860-0.972])观察到相反的关联,提示存在显著的区域间异质性(P<0.01)。
结论:本研究提供了全国性证据,表明高 O 暴露可能会缩短中国普通人群的长期生存。在北美、欧洲和亚洲之间,发现了 O 与死亡率的汇总效应存在很大的区域异质性。
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