Faculty of Health and Social Sciences, Bournemouth University, United Kingdom.
Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand; GeoHealth Laboratory, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand.
Prev Med. 2024 Feb;179:107832. doi: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107832. Epub 2023 Dec 23.
Drowning is a leading cause of death. The World Health Organization (WHO) and United Nations (UN) emphasise the need for population-level data-driven approaches to examine risk factors to improve water safety policies. Weather conditions, have the potential to influence drowning risk behaviours as people are more likely to spend time around water and/or undertake risky activities in aquatic spaces as a behavioural thermoregulatory response (e.g., seeking coolth).
A case-crossover approach assessed associations between changes in daily maximum air temperature (data from the nearest weather station to each drowning event) and unintentional drowning risk using anonymous data from the validated UK Water Incident Database 2012-2019 (1945 unintentional deaths, 82% male). Control days were selected using a unidirectional time-stratified approach, whereby seven and 14 days before the hazard day were used as the controls.
Mean maximum air temperature on case and control days was 15.36 °C and 14.80 °C, respectively. A 1 °C increase in air temperature was associated with a 7.2% increase in unintentional drowning risk. This relationship existed for males only. Drowning risk was elevated on days where air temperature reached 15-19.9 °C (Odds Ratio; OR: 1.75), 20-24.9 °C (OR: 1.87), and ≥ 25 °C (OR: 4.67), compared with days <10 °C. The greatest elevations in risk appeared to be amongst males and when alcohol intoxication was suspected. Precipitation showed no significant association with unintentional drowning risk.
Identifying such relationships highlights the value of considering weather conditions when evaluating environmental risk factors for drowning, and may inform water safety policy and allocating resources to prevention and rescue.
溺水是导致死亡的主要原因之一。世界卫生组织（WHO）和联合国（UN）强调，需要采用基于人群的、数据驱动的方法来研究风险因素，以改进水安全政策。天气条件可能会影响溺水风险行为，因为人们更有可能在水中度过时间，或在水上进行冒险活动，这是一种行为性体温调节反应（例如，寻求凉爽）。
采用病例交叉研究方法，使用 2012-2019 年经过验证的英国水上事故数据库（1945 例非故意死亡，82%为男性）的匿名数据，评估每日最高空气温度（距每个溺水事件最近的气象站数据）变化与非故意溺水风险之间的关系。控制日通过单向时间分层方法选择，即危害日之前的 7 天和 14 天分别作为对照。
病例日和对照日的平均最高空气温度分别为 15.36°C 和 14.80°C。空气温度升高 1°C，非故意溺水风险增加 7.2%。这种关系仅在男性中存在。当空气温度达到 15-19.9°C（优势比；OR：1.75）、20-24.9°C（OR：1.87）和≥25°C（OR：4.67）时，溺水风险升高，与<10°C的日子相比。在男性和怀疑酒精中毒的情况下，风险的升高幅度最大。降水与非故意溺水风险无显著关联。
确定这些关系突出了在评估溺水环境风险因素时考虑天气条件的价值，并且可以为水安全政策和资源分配提供信息，以预防和救援。
