Plant Sciences, UC Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
Department of Mapping and Geoinformation Engineering, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jan 5;14(1):636. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-50688-y.
Climate change is expected to impact the spring phenology of perennial trees, potentially altering the suitability of land for their cultivation. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change on the bloom timing of almond orchards, focusing on California, the world's leading region for almond production. By analyzing historical climatic data, employing a model that considers hourly temperatures and fall non-structural carbohydrates to predict bloom dates, and examining various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios, we assess the potential impacts of climate shifts on plant phenology and, consequently, on land suitability for almond farming. Our findings reveal that, within the next 30 years, the land suitable for almond production will not undergo significant changes. However, under unchanged emission scenarios, the available land to support almond orchard farming could decline between 48 to 73% by the end of the century. This reduction corresponds with an early shift in bloom time from the average Day of Year (DOY) 64 observed over the past 40 years to a projected earlier bloom between DOY 28-33 by 2100. These results emphasize the critical role climate shifts have in shaping future land use strategies for almond production in Central Valley, California. Consequently, understanding and addressing these factors is essential for the sustainable management and preservation of agricultural land, ensuring long-term food security and economic stability in the face of a rapidly changing climate.
气候变化预计将影响多年生树木的春季物候期，可能会改变其种植的土地适宜性。在这项研究中，我们研究了气候变化对加利福尼亚州杏仁果园开花时间的影响，加利福尼亚州是世界领先的杏仁生产地区。通过分析历史气候数据，采用考虑每小时温度和秋季非结构性碳水化合物来预测开花日期的模型，并检查各种耦合模型比较计划第六阶段 (CMIP6) 情景，我们评估了气候变化对植物物候的潜在影响，以及对杏仁种植土地适宜性的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在未来 30 年内，适合杏仁生产的土地不会发生重大变化。然而，在不变的排放情景下，到本世纪末，支持杏仁果园农业的可用土地可能会减少 48%至 73%。这种减少与开花时间从过去 40 年中平均观察到的 DOY64 提前到 2100 年的 DOY28-33 之间的提前转变相对应。这些结果强调了气候变化在塑造加利福尼亚州中央山谷未来杏仁生产土地利用战略方面的关键作用。因此，了解和应对这些因素对于农业土地的可持续管理和保护至关重要，以确保在快速变化的气候下实现长期粮食安全和经济稳定。
