Research Institute for Fruit Growing, Pitesti-Maracineni, ICDP, judetul, Pitesti, Arges, Romania.
National Research Institute for Soil Science, Agrochemistry and Environment Bucharest - ICPA, Bd-ul Marasti, No. 61, Sector 1, Bucharest, Romania.
Int J Biometeorol. 2020 Aug;64(8):1263-1271. doi: 10.1007/s00484-020-01903-2. Epub 2020 Apr 2.
The study examines the consequences of climate change in Malus (apple) and Pyrus (pear) on four phenological stages: bud swelling (code 51 BBCH Monograph), budburst (code 53), beginning of flowering (code 61), and end of flowering (code 69) in the temperate-continental climate of southern Romania. The hypothesis tested is how much the onset dates (TOD) of phenology stages moved earlier due to climate change. Weather and phenological data were collected from 1969 to 2018 and were statistically processed. There was an increase in air temperature (T) during the first 5 months in the year, with a significant rise in March and April; significant linear relationships show an advance in TOD with the years elapsed. Inverse linear relationships were found between TOD, maximum (T), mean (T), minimum (T) temperature, and sunshine hours (Sh). The relationships between TOD and T were the strongest. The early stages of flowering phenology are advancing more strongly than later flowering stages. For apple, in the last 50 years, there was an advance of 13.8 days for stage 51, 14.8 days for stage 53, 10.7 days for stage 61, and only 7.3 days for stage 69; for pear trees, the advance was lower: 10 days for stage 51, 9 days for stage 53, 6.7 days for stage 61, and only 2.1 days for stage 69. These findings, which might be extrapolated to similar environments, have important consequences in fruit growing, like the occurrence of climate accidents due to late frost, insect pollination, and application of pesticides and irrigation water.
该研究考察了气候变化对罗马尼亚南部大陆性气候中苹果（Malus）和梨（Pyrus）四个物候阶段的影响：芽膨大（代码 51 BBCH 专论）、芽裂（代码 53）、开花开始（代码 61）和开花结束（代码 69）。检验的假设是，由于气候变化，物候阶段的开始日期（TOD）提前了多少。1969 年至 2018 年期间收集了天气和物候数据，并进行了统计处理。当年前 5 个月的空气温度（T）有所升高，3 月和 4 月的气温显著上升；显著的线性关系表明，TOD 随年份的推移而提前。TOD 与最大（T）、平均（T）、最小（T）温度和日照时数（Sh）之间呈反比线性关系。TOD 与 T 之间的关系最强。开花物候的早期阶段比后期开花阶段推进得更强烈。对于苹果，在过去的 50 年中，第 51 阶段的提前期为 13.8 天，第 53 阶段的提前期为 14.8 天，第 61 阶段的提前期为 10.7 天，第 69 阶段的提前期仅为 7.3 天；对于梨树，提前期较低：第 51 阶段提前 10 天，第 53 阶段提前 9 天，第 61 阶段提前 6.7 天，第 69 阶段仅提前 2.1 天。这些发现可能会被推断到类似的环境中，对水果种植产生重要影响，例如由于晚霜、昆虫授粉、农药和灌溉水的应用而导致气候灾害的发生。
