Grytten Jostein, Skau Irene, Sørensen Rune
University of Oslo, and Division of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway.
University of Oslo, Norway.
Econ Hum Biol. 2024 Jan;52:101339. doi: 10.1016/j.ehb.2023.101339. Epub 2023 Dec 9.
We examined whether the fertility pattern of immigrant mothers is handed down to the next generation. Our analyses were carried out on population register data. These data contained information on all immigrants to Norway from 123 countries during the period 1935-1995. We examined whether there was a relationship between the fertility rate in the country of origin and the number of children for generations 1.5 and 2 in Norway. We estimated three models: fixed effects for country of origin, fixed effects for region, and no fixed effects. The three specifications yielded estimates with overlapping confidence intervals. We interpret the estimates from the models with fixed effects for region, and the model with no fixed effects as upper-bound estimates. They show that an increase of 1.00 in the fertility rate in the country of origin leads to an average increase in the number of children of 0.12 (no fixed effects) or 0.14 (fixed effects for region) for immigrant women in generations 1.5 and 2. The estimate from the model with fixed effects for country of origin was small and not statistically significant at the conventional level. We interpret this as a lower-bound estimate. Our upper-bound estimates for generations 1.5 and 2 are smaller than the estimates for generation 1, i.e. there has been a decrease in the fertility rate from the first to the second generation. As a result, if the proportion of the population with an immigrant background continues to increase, it may increase at a slower rate in the future.
我们研究了移民母亲的生育模式是否会传递给下一代。我们基于人口登记数据进行分析。这些数据包含了1935年至1995年期间从123个国家移民到挪威的所有人的信息。我们研究了原籍国的生育率与挪威第1.5代和第2代子女数量之间是否存在关联。我们估计了三个模型：原籍国固定效应模型、地区固定效应模型和无固定效应模型。这三种设定得出的估计值置信区间相互重叠。我们将地区固定效应模型和无固定效应模型的估计值解释为上限估计。结果表明，原籍国生育率每增加1.00，第1.5代和第2代移民女性的子女数量平均增加0.12（无固定效应模型）或0.14（地区固定效应模型）。原籍国固定效应模型的估计值较小，在传统水平上无统计学意义。我们将此解释为下限估计。我们对第1.5代和第2代的上限估计小于第一代的估计值，即从第一代到第二代生育率有所下降。因此，如果有移民背景的人口比例继续增加，未来其增长速度可能会放缓。
