School of Global Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, UK; Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, USA.
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project, USA; Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Lancet Planet Health. 2024 Jan;8(1):e51-e60. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00256-5.
Conflict and climate change might be present in the same areas and expose communities that struggle with these dual risks, but they do not co-occur in consistent or predictable ways. We question how to effectively adapt to climate change in areas experiencing violence. Conflict can make adaptation to climate change more difficult, but when local conflict patterns are better understood it is possible to introduce climate adaptation measures that are effective and responsive to the needs of the population. Further, we argue that conflict mitigation is not a climate adaptation. Even in conflict zones, the most effective climate adaptations focus on climate-centred technical solutions and poverty reduction, local governance legitimacy, and community-led efforts to cooperate in periods of climate stress. We outline some of these possibilities.
冲突与气候变化可能出现在同一地区，使那些同时面临这两种风险的社区暴露无遗，但它们并不是以一致或可预测的方式同时发生的。我们质疑在发生暴力的地区如何有效地适应气候变化。冲突可能使适应气候变化更加困难，但当更好地了解当地冲突模式时，就有可能引入对人口需求有回应和有效的气候适应措施。此外，我们认为，缓解冲突并不是适应气候变化。即使在冲突地区，最有效的气候适应措施也侧重于以气候为中心的技术解决方案和减贫、地方治理合法性以及社区在气候压力时期合作的努力。我们概述了其中的一些可能性。
