[Spatio-temporal analysis of the incidence of morbidity and mortality from severe malaria in the Sélingué health district, Mali].

AIMS/OBJECTIVES/ASSUMPTION: In Mali, malaria is the leading cause of death and consultations in health facilities. The objective of this study was to examine trends in morbidity and mortality among children aged 0 to 15 years and to establish accurate mapping of the distribution of cases in health areas of the Sélingué health district.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

A retrospective analysis of hospital records at the Sélingué district reference health center from 2010 to 2013 was conducted. Trend Chi2 and logistic regression were used, respectively, to compare changes in trends between health areas and to identify risk factors associated with malaria mortality.

RESULTS

Among the 1282 cases of malaria, the incidence of severe malaria gradually decreased from 96.75 ‰ (671 cases) in 2010 to 34.23 ‰ (291 cases) in 2011, 19.76 ‰ (168 cases) in 2012 and 19.43 ‰ (152 cases) in 2013. From 2010 to 2013, there was an average monthly variation in October of 26, 6% cerebralmalaria and 23.3% malaria anemia by the month of July of the same year. Spatial variation of anemic forms of malaria between health areas (p < 0.001) was observed from 2010 to 2013. From 2012 to 2013, there was an overall decrease in the frequency of hospitalizations, incidence and death rate for severe malaria. In multivariate analysis, in the final model, malaria lethality was associated with the duration of hospitalization for more than three days (OR = 0.124); the year of hospitalization from 2010 to 2012 (OR = 0.813); the absence of blood transfusion of the patient (OR = 0.282); at the age of the patient in children under one year (OR = 0.356) and at the emergency anti-malarial treatment instituted with artemether (OR = 3.006) adjusting for the form of malaria. On the other hand, malaria lethality was not related to the form of malaria (p = 0.072), sex (p = 0.390), residence (p = 0.308), prior treatment before hospitalization (p = 0.949). at fever in children (p = 0.153) adjusting for other variables in the model.

CONCLUSION

Hospital case fatality remains high with a drop in the incidence of morbidity and mortality; a monthly variation in morbidity and mortality with two peaks, July - August and October-November and the emergency treatment instituted with artemether, the length of hospital stay could be identified as associated factors.