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从可持续性角度看区域人口与社会福利:评价指标、水平测度与互动机制

Regional population and social welfare from the perspective of sustainability: Evaluation indicator, level measurement, and interaction mechanism.

机构信息

Research Institute of Social Development, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China.

Law School, Southwest Petroleum University, Sichuan, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2024 Jan 11;19(1):e0296517. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0296517. eCollection 2024.

Abstract

Key to regional sustainable development are the development and interplay of population dynamics and social welfare, each playing a significant role. As a representative region with demographic characteristics such as negative population growth and large labor outflow, the development and interaction between population and social welfare in Nanchong deserve in-depth exploration. This article takes the development of population and social welfare in Nanchong as the research object, and constructs an evaluation indicator system of population and social welfare through research backtracking, and uses entropy method and coupling coordination model to measure the development level and interactive effect of population and social welfare in Nanchong from 2010 to 2021. The research results show that: Firstly, the comprehensive evaluation results of population in Nanchong shows a linear upward trend, which indicates the stable positive effect of population structure and distribution, the gradual improvement effect of population quality effectively compensate for the weakening effect of population quantity, thus achieving the positive development of population. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation results of social welfare in Nanchong shows an exponential upward trend, which indicates the social welfare has maintained a rapid growth momentum in various dimensions and the long-term positive effects have completely absorbed the negative effects, thus achieving the positive development of social welfare. Thirdly, during the sample period, the population and social welfare in Nanchong consistently maintained a high level of interaction strength, with factors diffusing and integrating. On this basis, the diffusion theory is used as an empirical reference to construct three interactive mechanisms between the population and social welfare in Nanchong and the implications are inferred from the empirical results.

摘要

区域可持续发展的关键在于人口动态和社会福利的发展和相互作用,两者都起着重要的作用。南充作为一个具有人口负增长和大量劳动力外流等人口特征的代表性地区,其人口与社会福利的发展和相互作用值得深入探讨。本文以南充人口和社会福利的发展为研究对象,通过研究回溯构建了人口和社会福利评价指标体系,利用熵值法和耦合协调模型测度了 2010-2021 年南充人口与社会福利的发展水平及其互动效应。研究结果表明:首先,南充人口的综合评价结果呈线性上升趋势,这表明人口结构和分布的稳定积极效应、人口素质的逐步改善效应有效弥补了人口数量的减弱效应,从而实现了人口的积极发展。其次,南充社会福利的综合评价结果呈指数上升趋势,这表明社会福利在各个维度上保持了快速增长的势头,长期的积极效应完全吸收了消极效应,从而实现了社会福利的积极发展。第三,在样本期内,南充的人口和社会福利始终保持着较高的互动强度,各因素相互扩散和融合。在此基础上,本文将扩散理论作为实证参考,构建了南充人口与社会福利之间的三种互动机制,并从实证结果中推断出其含义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0648/10783736/a7ce3c547140/pone.0296517.g001.jpg

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