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细颗粒物空气质量改善与碳达峰目标实现:以中国福建省为例的研究。

PM air quality and health gains in the quest for carbon peaking: A case study of Fujian Province, China.

机构信息

Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Research Center of Urban Carbon Neutrality, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.

Shenzhen Academy of Environmental Sciences, Shenzhen 518001, China.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2024 Mar 10;915:170161. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170161. Epub 2024 Jan 15.

Abstract

China faces a dual challenge of improving air quality and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Stringent clean air actions gradually narrow the end-of-pipe (EOP) pollution control potential. Meanwhile, pursuing carbon peaking will reduce air pollution and health risks. However, the impact on air quality and health gains in individual Chinese provinces has not been assessed with a specific focus on local policies. Here, typical shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) and local policies (i.e., business as usual, BAU; end-of-pipe controls, EOP; co-control mitigation, CCM) are combined to set three scenarios (i.e., BAU-SSP3, EOP-SSP4, CCM-SSP1). Under these three scenarios, we couple the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model, an air quality model and health risk assessment methodology to evaluate the characteristics of carbon peaking in Fujian Province. PM air quality and impacts on public health are assessed, using the metric of the deaths attributable to PM pollution (DAPP). The results show that energy-related CO emissions will only peak before 2030 in the CCM-SSP1 scenario. In this context, air pollutant emission pathways reveal that mitigation is limited under the EOP-SSP4 scenario, necessitating further mitigation under the CCM-SSP1 scenario. The annual average PM level is projected to be 16.5 μg·m in 2035 with a corresponding decrease in DAPP of 297 (95 % confidence intervals: 217-308) compared with that of 2020. Despite the significant improvements in PM air quality and health gains under the CCM-SSP1 scenario, reaching the 5 μg·m target of the World Health Organization (WHO) remains difficult. Furthermore, population aging will require stronger PM mitigation to enhance health gains. This study provides a valuable reference for other developing regions to co-control air pollution and GHGs.

摘要

中国面临着改善空气质量和减少温室气体(GHG)排放的双重挑战。严格的清洁空气行动逐渐缩小了末端治理(EOP)污染控制的潜力。同时,追求碳峰值将减少空气污染和健康风险。然而,对于个别中国省份的空气质量和健康收益的影响尚未进行评估,特别是针对当地政策。在这里,典型的共同社会经济途径(SSP)和当地政策(即,照常营业,BAU;末端治理控制,EOP;协同控制缓解,CCM)相结合,设定了三个情景(即,BAU-SSP3、EOP-SSP4、CCM-SSP1)。在这三个情景下,我们将低排放分析平台(LEAP)模型、空气质量模型和健康风险评估方法相结合,评估福建省碳峰值的特点。使用归因于 PM 污染的死亡人数(DAPP)这一指标来评估 PM 空气质量和对公众健康的影响。结果表明,在 CCM-SSP1 情景下,能源相关的 CO 排放量仅在 2030 年前达到峰值。在这种情况下,污染物排放途径表明,在 EOP-SSP4 情景下缓解措施有限,因此需要在 CCM-SSP1 情景下进一步缓解。预计 2035 年 PM 年平均值将达到 16.5μg·m,与 2020 年相比,DAPP 相应减少 297(95%置信区间:217-308)。尽管 CCM-SSP1 情景下 PM 空气质量和健康收益显著改善,但仍难以达到世界卫生组织(WHO)的 5μg·m 目标。此外,人口老龄化将需要更强有力的 PM 缓解措施来提高健康收益。本研究为其他发展中地区协同控制空气污染和 GHG 提供了有价值的参考。

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