Mahdi Esam, Fisher Thomas J
Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Department of Statistics, Miami University, Oxford, OH, USA.
J Appl Stat. 2022 Sep 19;51(2):230-255. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2022.2121384. eCollection 2024.
A new portmanteau test statistic is proposed for detecting nonlinearity in time series data. The new portmanteau statistic is calculated from the log of the determinant of a matrix comprised of the autocorrelations and cross-correlations of the residuals and squared residuals of a fitted time series. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed test statistic is derived as a linear combination of chi-square distributed random variables and can be approximated by a gamma distribution. A bootstrapping approach is shown to be robust when distributional assumptions are relaxed. The efficacy of the statistic is studied against linear and nonlinear dependency structures of some stationary time series models. It is shown that the new test can provide higher power than other tests in many situations. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed test by investigating linear and nonlinear effects in an economic series and two environmental time series.
提出了一种新的混合检验统计量,用于检测时间序列数据中的非线性。新的混合统计量是根据一个矩阵的行列式的对数计算得出的,该矩阵由拟合时间序列的残差和平方残差的自相关和互相关组成。所提出的检验统计量的渐近分布被推导为卡方分布随机变量的线性组合,并且可以用伽马分布近似。当分布假设放宽时,一种自助法被证明是稳健的。针对一些平稳时间序列模型的线性和非线性依赖结构研究了该统计量的功效。结果表明,在许多情况下,新检验比其他检验具有更高的功效。我们通过研究一个经济序列和两个环境时间序列中的线性和非线性效应,证明了所提出检验的优势。