Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, University Hospital Carl Gustav Carus, Technical University Dresden, Dresden, Germany.
Department of Biostatistics, Central Institute of Mental Health, University of Heidelberg, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany.
Psychol Med. 2024 Jun;54(8):1844-1852. doi: 10.1017/S0033291723003811. Epub 2024 Jan 29.
Increased autocorrelation (AR) of system-specific measures has been suggested as a predictor for critical transitions in complex systems. Increased AR of mood scores has been reported to anticipate depressive episodes in major depressive disorder, while other studies found AR increases to be associated with depressive episodes themselves. Data on AR in patients with bipolar disorders (BD) is limited and inconclusive.
Patients with BD reported their current mood via daily e-diaries for 12 months. Current affective status (euthymic, prodromal, depressed, (hypo)manic) was assessed in 26 bi-weekly expert interviews. Exploratory analyses tested whether self-reported current mood and AR of the same item could differentiate between prodromal phases or affective episodes and euthymia.
A total of 29 depressive and 20 (hypo)manic episodes were observed in 29 participants with BD. Self-reported current mood was significantly decreased during the two weeks prior to a depressive episode (early prodromal, late prodromal), but not changed prior to manic episodes. The AR was neither a significant predictor for the early or late prodromal phase of depression nor for the early prodromal phase of (hypo)mania. Decreased AR was found in the late prodromal phase of (hypo)mania. Increased AR was mainly found during depressive episodes.
AR changes might not be better at predicting depressive episodes than simple self-report measures on current mood in patients with BD. Increased AR was mostly found during depressive episodes. Potentially, changes in AR might anticipate (hypo)manic episodes.
系统特异性指标的自相关性（AR）增加被认为是复杂系统中关键转变的预测指标。情绪评分的 AR 增加已被报道可预测重性抑郁症中的抑郁发作，而其他研究则发现 AR 增加与抑郁发作本身有关。关于双相情感障碍（BD）患者的 AR 数据有限且不一致。
BD 患者通过每日电子日记报告 12 个月的当前情绪。在 26 次双周专家访谈中评估当前的情感状态（心境良好、前驱期、抑郁、（轻躁狂））。探索性分析测试了自我报告的当前情绪和同一项目的 AR 是否可以区分前驱期或情感发作与心境良好。
在 29 名 BD 患者中观察到 29 次抑郁发作和 20 次（轻躁狂）发作。在抑郁发作前两周（前驱早期、前驱晚期），自我报告的当前情绪显著降低，但在躁狂发作前没有变化。AR 既不是抑郁前驱早期或晚期的显著预测指标，也不是（轻躁狂）前驱早期的预测指标。在（轻躁狂）前驱晚期发现 AR 降低。在抑郁发作期间发现 AR 增加。
AR 变化可能不如 BD 患者当前情绪的简单自我报告测量更能预测抑郁发作。在抑郁发作期间发现 AR 增加。潜在地，AR 的变化可能预示着（轻躁狂）发作。
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