Why so many polyploids? Accounting for environmental stochasticity in unreduced gamete formation lowers the perceived barriers to polyploid establishment.

While polyploids are common in nature, existing models suggest that polyploid establishment should be difficult and rare. We explore this apparent paradox by focussing on the role of unreduced gametes, as their union is the main route for the formation of neopolyploids. Production of such gametes is affected by genetic and environmental factors, resulting in variation in the formation rate of unreduced gametes (u). Once formed, neopolyploids face minority cytotype exclusion (MCE) due to a lack of viable mating opportunities. More than a dozen theoretical models have explored factors that could permit neopolyploids to overcome MCE and become established. Until now, however, none have explored variability in u and its consequences for the rate of polyploid establishment. Here, we determine the distribution that best fits the available empirical data on u. We perform a global sensitivity analysis exploring the consequences of using empirical distributions of u to investigate effects on polyploid establishment. We determined that in many cases, u is best fit by a log-normal distribution. We found environmental stochasticity in u dramatically impacts model predictions when compared to a static u. Our results help reconcile previous modelling results suggesting high barriers to the polyploid establishment with the observation that polyploids are common in nature.