Zartarian Valerie G, Xue Jianping, Poulakos Antonios G, Tornero-Velez Rogelio, Stanek Lindsay W, Snyder Emily, Helms Garrison Veronica, Egan Kathryn, Courtney Joseph G
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, North Carolina 27711, United States.
LinTech Global, Inc., Boston, Massachusetts 02109, United States.
Environ Sci Technol. 2024 Feb 9;58(7):3311-21. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.3c07881.
To identify U.S. lead exposure risk hotspots, we expanded upon geospatial statistical methods from a published Michigan case study. The evaluation of identified hotspots using five lead indices, based on housing age and sociodemographic data, showed moderate-to-substantial agreement with state-identified higher-risk locations from nine public health department reports (45-78%) and with hotspots of children's blood lead data from Michigan and Ohio (e.g., Cohen's kappa scores of 0.49-0.63). Applying geospatial cluster analysis and 80th-100th percentile methods to the lead indices, the number of U.S. census tracts ranged from ∼8% (intersection of indices) to ∼41% (combination of indices). Analyses of the number of children <6 years old living in those census tracts revealed the states (e.g., Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Massachusetts, California, Texas) and counties with highest potential lead exposure risk. Results support use of available lead indices as surrogates to identify locations in the absence of consistent, complete blood lead level (BLL) data across the United States. Ground-truthing with local knowledge, additional BLL data, and environmental data is needed to improve identification and analysis of lead exposure and BLL hotspots for interventions. While the science evolves, these screening results can inform "deeper dive" analyses for targeting lead actions.
为了确定美国铅暴露风险热点地区，我们在已发表的密歇根州案例研究的地理空间统计方法基础上进行了拓展。基于房屋年代和社会人口数据，使用五个铅指标对已确定的热点地区进行评估，结果显示与九个公共卫生部门报告中确定的高风险地区（45%-78%）以及密歇根州和俄亥俄州儿童血铅数据的热点地区有中度至高度一致性（例如，科恩卡方系数为0.49-0.63）。将地理空间聚类分析和第80-100百分位数方法应用于铅指标，美国人口普查区的数量范围从约8%（指标交集）到约41%（指标组合）。对居住在这些人口普查区的6岁以下儿童数量进行分析，揭示了潜在铅暴露风险最高的州（如伊利诺伊州、密歇根州、新泽西州、纽约州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、马萨诸塞州、加利福尼亚州、得克萨斯州）和县。结果支持在全美缺乏一致、完整的血铅水平（BLL）数据的情况下，使用可用的铅指标作为替代指标来识别地点。需要结合当地知识、额外的BLL数据和环境数据进行实地验证，以改进对铅暴露和BLL热点地区的识别与分析，从而采取干预措施。随着科学的发展，这些筛查结果可为针对铅行动的“深入分析”提供参考。
