Sarayrah Hind, Hayek Wissam, Thneibat Ahmed, Ibrahim Majed
Department of Geography, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan.
Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing Department, Earth and Environmental Science Faculty, Al Al-Bayt University, Mafraq, Jordan.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Feb 10;196(3):250. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12436-1.
The Madaba Governorate, as the second-largest wheat producer in Jordan, holds a crucial position in safeguarding regional food security. Its evolving landscape, marked by changes in land use, presents environmental and socio-economic challenges that necessitate sustainable urban planning and land management practices. This study delves into the intricate relationship between the conversion of agricultural lands into urban areas and the concurrent rise in population within the Madaba Governorate. Utilizing a Markov model, this research employs land use and land cover (LULC) data from 1994, 2004, and 2015 to project future changes in 2025 and 2035 with an impressive 80% accuracy (kappa coefficient). The findings reveal a projected 6% increase in urban areas over the next decade and a notable 11.81% decline in rural lands, signifying a substantial urbanization trend. In response to these population-driven LULC dynamics, there is an urgent need for the implementation of sustainable land use planning and management solutions. Given the constraints of limited water resources in the region, this study also places emphasis on water resource management. Recommendations include measures such as restricting urban sprawl, preserving agricultural lands, managing population growth, and implementing water conservation strategies. These insights provide invaluable information for stakeholders in the Madaba Governorate, including policymakers and land use planners, fostering a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between regional water resources, population expansion, and land use changes.
马达巴省作为约旦第二大小麦产区，在保障地区粮食安全方面占据关键地位。其不断演变的地貌，以土地利用变化为特征，带来了环境和社会经济挑战，这就需要可持续的城市规划和土地管理实践。本研究深入探讨了马达巴省农业用地向城市地区转变与人口同步增长之间的复杂关系。本研究利用马尔可夫模型，采用1994年、2004年和2015年的土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）数据，以80%的惊人准确率（卡帕系数）预测2025年和2035年的未来变化。研究结果显示，预计未来十年城市地区将增加6%，农村土地将显著减少11.81%，这表明城市化趋势明显。鉴于这些由人口驱动的土地利用和土地覆盖动态变化，迫切需要实施可持续的土地利用规划和管理解决方案。考虑到该地区水资源有限的限制，本研究还强调了水资源管理。建议包括限制城市扩张、保护农业用地、控制人口增长和实施节水战略等措施。这些见解为马达巴省的利益相关者，包括政策制定者和土地利用规划者，提供了宝贵信息，有助于全面理解区域水资源、人口扩张和土地利用变化之间的复杂相互作用。
