Department of Economics, Istanbul Ticaret University, Istanbul, Turkey.
Research Center of Development Economics, Azerbaijan State University of Economics (UNEC), Baku, AZ1001, Azerbaijan.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Mar;31(12):18797-18812. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32124-4. Epub 2024 Feb 13.
The Russia-Ukraine war and other similar conflicts across the globe have heightened risks to the United States of America's (USA's) energy security. However, little is known about the severity of the effect of energy security risks on the USA's quest to attain net-zero emissions targets by 2050. To this end, we examine the effect of energy security risks on the load capacity factor (LCF) in the USA. Employing a time series dataset spinning from 1970 to 2018, the results of the Dynamic Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) simulations model suggest that energy security-related risk hampers the long-term net-zero emissions targets with its effect decreasing over time until it varnishes in about 5 years time. The results also show that foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows, renewable energy consumption, and green technology have long- and short-run positive effects on the LCF. Conversely, economic expansion and urbanization impede environmental quality by lowering the LCF both in the long run and short run. These findings are upheld by the outcomes of the multivariate quantile-on-quantile regression. Therefore, the study advocates for the consumption of renewable energy, investment in green technologies, and FDI inflows to mitigate energy security-related risks and attain the net-zero emissions targets by 2050 in the USA.
俄乌战争和全球其他类似冲突加剧了美国(USA)能源安全的风险。然而,对于能源安全风险对美国到 2050 年实现净零排放目标的影响的严重程度知之甚少。为此,我们研究了能源安全风险对美国负载系数(LCF)的影响。使用 1970 年至 2018 年的时间序列数据集,动态自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模拟模型的结果表明,与能源安全相关的风险阻碍了长期净零排放目标,其影响随着时间的推移而降低,直到大约 5 年后消失。结果还表明,外国直接投资(FDI)流入、可再生能源消费和绿色技术对 LCF 具有长期和短期的积极影响。相反,经济扩张和城市化通过降低 LCF,对长期和短期的环境质量都产生了阻碍作用。这些发现得到了多元分位数-分位数回归结果的支持。因此,该研究主张消费可再生能源、投资绿色技术和吸引外国直接投资,以减轻与能源安全相关的风险,并实现美国到 2050 年的净零排放目标。