Wolfson C, Confavreux C
Neuroepidemiology. 1985;4(4):227-39. doi: 10.1159/000110234.
Prior research into multiple sclerosis prognosis has produced conflicting results. This paper presents an original approach in which the disease course is described by the movements of patients through well-defined disease states. A Markov model is proposed to describe these movements and to evaluate the effect of prognostic factors on transitions from state to state. The feasibility and applicability of this model is determined using data on the course of disease in 278 diagnosed patients from Lyon. Patients with older age at onset, females, and those with monosymptomatic onset are found to be at a higher risk of transition to a worse disease state.
先前对多发性硬化症预后的研究产生了相互矛盾的结果。本文提出了一种独创的方法，即通过患者在明确界定的疾病状态中的进展来描述疾病进程。提出了一个马尔可夫模型来描述这些进展，并评估预后因素对状态转换的影响。使用来自里昂的278名确诊患者的疾病进程数据来确定该模型的可行性和适用性。研究发现，发病时年龄较大的患者、女性以及单症状起病的患者转变为更差疾病状态的风险更高。
