Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Thorvaldsensvej 40, 1871, Frederiksberg, Denmark.
NORDECO, Skindergade 23, 1159, Copenhagen K, Denmark.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Feb 16;196(3):276. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12439-y.
The ongoing depletion of natural systems and associated biodiversity decline is of growing international concern. Climate change is expected to exacerbate anthropogenic impacts on wild populations. The scale of impact on ecosystems and ecosystem services will be determined by the impact on a multitude of species and functional groups, which due to their biology and numbers are difficult to monitor. The IPCC has argued that surveillance or monitoring is critical and proposed that monitoring systems should be developed, which not only track developments but also function as "early warning systems." Human populations are already generating large continuous datasets on multiple taxonomic groups through internet searches. These time series could in principle add substantially to current monitoring if they reflect true changes in the natural world. We here examined whether information on internet search frequencies delivered by the Danish population and captured by Google Trends (GT) appropriately informs on population trends in 106 common Danish bird species. We compared the internet search activity with independent equivalent population trend assessments from the Danish Ornithological Society (BirdLife Denmark/DOF). We find a fair concordance between the GT trends and the assessments by DOF. A substantial agreement can be obtained by omitting species without clear temporal trends. Our findings suggest that population trend proxies from internet search frequencies can be used to supplement existing wildlife population monitoring and to ask questions about an array of ecological phenomena, which potentially can be integrated into an early warning system for biodiversity under climate change.
自然系统的持续枯竭和相关生物多样性的下降引起了国际社会越来越多的关注。气候变化预计将加剧人类活动对野生动物种群的影响。对生态系统和生态系统服务的影响规模将取决于对众多物种和功能群的影响,由于其生物学和数量,这些物种和功能群难以监测。政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)认为监测或监控至关重要,并提出应开发监测系统,这些系统不仅跟踪发展情况,而且还作为“预警系统”发挥作用。人类种群已经通过互联网搜索生成了关于多个分类群的大量连续数据集。如果这些时间序列反映了自然界的真实变化,它们原则上可以大大增加当前的监测。我们在这里研究了丹麦人口通过谷歌趋势(GT)提供的互联网搜索频率信息是否可以适当反映 106 种常见丹麦鸟类的种群趋势。我们将互联网搜索活动与丹麦鸟类学协会(丹麦鸟类生活/DOF)的独立等效种群趋势评估进行了比较。我们发现 GT 趋势与 DOF 的评估之间存在公平的一致性。如果忽略没有明显时间趋势的物种,则可以获得大量的一致性。我们的研究结果表明,来自互联网搜索频率的种群趋势代理可以用于补充现有的野生动物种群监测,并提出一系列关于生态现象的问题,这些问题可能会被整合到气候变化下的生物多样性预警系统中。