School of Information, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Computer Science and Engineering Division, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, University of Michigan School of Engineering, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
Gerontologist. 2024 Jun 1;64(6). doi: 10.1093/geront/gnae015.
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Suicide rates typically increase during recessions. However, few studies have explored how recessions affect risk among older adults nearing retirement. This study used a large suicide mortality registry to characterize and quantify suicide related to retirement during the Great Recession (GR). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data come from the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS, 2004-2017; N = 53,298 suicide deaths age ≥50). We analyzed the text narratives (i.e., descriptions of the most salient circumstances to each suicide) of these decedents using natural language processing (NLP) to identify cases that were "retirement-related" (RR, e.g., anticipating, being unable to, or recently retiring). We used time-series analysis to quantify variation in RR over the GR, and compared these trends to retirees (i.e., decedents whose occupation was "retired") and all decedents aged ≥50. We used content and network analysis to characterize themes represented in the narratives. RESULTS: There were 878 RR cases (1.6% of suicides aged ≥50) identified by the NLP model; only 52% of these cases were among retirees. RR cases were younger (62 vs 75 years) and more educated (41.5% vs 24.5% college degree) than retirees. The rate of RR suicide was positively associated with indicators of the GR (e.g., short-term unemployment R2 = 0.70, p = .024), but economic indicators were not correlated with the suicide rate among retirees or older adults in general. Economic issues were more central to the narratives of RR cases during the GR compared to other periods. DISCUSSION AND IMPLICATIONS: Recessions shape suicide risk related to retirement transitions.
背景与目的:通常情况下,在经济衰退期间自杀率会上升。然而,很少有研究探讨经济衰退如何影响临近退休的老年人的风险。本研究使用大型自杀死亡率登记系统,在大衰退期间(GR)描述和量化与退休相关的自杀。
研究设计与方法:数据来自国家暴力死亡报告系统(NVDRS,2004-2017;N=53298 例年龄≥50 岁的自杀死亡)。我们使用自然语言处理(NLP)分析这些死者的文字叙述(即描述每个自杀事件的最突出情况),以识别“与退休相关”的案例(例如,预期、无法或最近退休)。我们使用时间序列分析来量化 GR 期间 RR 的变化,并将这些趋势与退休人员(即死者的职业为“退休”)和所有≥50 岁的死者进行比较。我们使用内容和网络分析来描述叙述中代表的主题。
结果:通过 NLP 模型确定了 878 例 RR 病例(≥50 岁自杀者的 1.6%);这些病例中只有 52%是退休人员。RR 病例的年龄较小(62 岁与 75 岁)且受教育程度较高(41.5%与 24.5%有大学学历)。RR 自杀率与 GR 的指标呈正相关(例如,短期失业率 R2=0.70,p=0.024),但经济指标与退休人员或一般老年人的自杀率无关。与其他时期相比,GR 期间 RR 病例的叙述中经济问题更为核心。
讨论与意义:经济衰退塑造了与退休过渡相关的自杀风险。
MMWR Surveill Summ. 2019-10-4
MMWR Surveill Summ. 2018-9-28
JAMA Netw Open. 2024-6-3
Curr Epidemiol Rep. 2022
Eur J Epidemiol. 2021-6
Front Psychol. 2018-1-4
Am J Prev Med. 2016-11
J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2016-7