Urban energy performance improvement policy selection in China based on policy effect prediction: An analysis from the dimensions of economy, environment and well-being.

The environmental pollution and social well-being issue caused by the huge energy consumption in cities reflect the urgency of improving urban energy performance from multiple dimensions of economy, environment, and well-being. As a result, various countries and cities have promulgated a series of policies. However, the complexity of the policies makes the categories and utilities need to be further clarified, and the diseconomy caused by the lag of policy effect evaluation makes the focus of policy implementation need to be clear in advance. Therefore, based on public choice theory, this research follows the idea of "prior analysis" and takes Chinese cities as the research object. Firstly, the collected energy performance improvement policies of Chinese cities were analyzed and classified by the content analysis method, and the main utilities of all policies and the specific utilities of each category were summarized. Based on the multiple dimensions of urban energy performance research (namely, economy, environment and well-being dimensions), this research summarized the policy utilities that help to improve the urban energy performance of each dimension, and also preset the policy utility values. Secondly, the effect prediction model for urban energy performance improvement policies in each dimension was constructed by Back-propagation (BP) neural network. Thirdly, the energy performance of Chinese cities in 2020 measured by Data Envelopment Analysis method was taken as the benchmark value, and the energy performance of Chinese cities in 2025 measured by the policy effect prediction model was taken as the comparison value. According to the results of performance improvement, the energy performance improvement policies of Chinese cities were selected respectively from the dimensions of economy, environment and well-being. This research shows that: the energy performance improvement policies of Chinese cities mainly include six categories, namely energy conservation and emission reduction policies, energy development policies, ecological environmental policies, fiscal and tax policies, industrial policies and economic and social policies. It is needed to focus on ecological environmental policies, fiscal and tax policies and industrial policies to improve urban energy performance from the economic dimension. For the environmental dimension, the key and priority policies are ecological environmental policies. Compared with the economic dimension, the focus of implementing policies adds economic and social policies in the well-being dimension. In the implementation of policies, the differences of energy performance among cities can be reduced through multi-feature analysis of cities or regions, appropriate adjustment of specific measures and targets, and improvement of digital information management of urban energy performance. This research can effectively help cities clarify which policies require higher implementation intensity and attention before and during policy implementation, thereby maximizing multi-dimensional urban energy performance.