Liu J, Lin P, Xu H F, Yang F, Fu X B, Yao Z L, Xie S L, He S M, Li J R, Pan S Y, Li Y
Department for HIV/AIDS Control and Prevention, Guangdong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Guangdong Association of STD & AIDS Prevention and Control, Guangzhou 511430, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2024 Feb 10;45(2):265-272. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20230617-00383.
To explore high-risk sexual behaviors of HIV/AIDS and related factors in young students in Guangzhou. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in 5 different types of Guangzhou colleges by convenience sampling with minimum number of classes per grade and 600 samples per school from September to November 2021. The R 4.2.2 software was used to consolidate databases. Simultaneously, a logistic regression model and a decision tree algorithm model, stratifying by whether sexual behaviors had occurred before, were constructed. In each layer, the prediction performance of the two models was evaluated through area under receiver operating characteristic and the confusion matrix, and then the model with high prediction performance was retained. A total of 7 346 students were surveyed. The proportion of the respondents reporting sexual experience were 9.08% (667/7 346), in whom 26.24% (175/667) had risky sexual activity in the past year. The decision tree algorithm model performs well in predicting whether high-risk sexual behaviors have occurred in the past year. When the complexity parameter value is 0.018, and nsplit reaches 4, which means there are 5 leaf nodes in the model, the cross error of the tree will be the smallest. The first best grouping variable in the decision tree was whether to use condoms throughout the first sexual behavior. If condoms were used at their sexual debut, but homosexual practices have occurred in the past year, the probability of risky sexual behavior will increase. If homosexual practices have not occurred in the past year, but the age of sexual debut was below 18 years old while the period of HIV education was after high school, the probability of risk sexual behavior will also increase. AIDS-related risky behaviors of young students still deserved attention. The experience of sexual debut and whether AIDS-related health education has been received before the sexual debut were significant predictors for the occurrence of high-risk sexual behavior. The decision tree algorithm model has particular applicability for predicting and screening potential risk populations.
探索广州市青年学生艾滋病病毒/艾滋病相关的高危性行为及相关因素。于2021年9月至11月，采用便利抽样法，在广州市5所不同类型的高校进行横断面调查，每个年级抽取最少班级数，每所学校抽取600个样本。使用R 4.2.2软件合并数据库。同时，构建了逻辑回归模型和决策树算法模型，并根据性行为是否在之前发生进行分层。在每一层中，通过受试者工作特征曲线下面积和混淆矩阵评估两种模型的预测性能，然后保留预测性能高的模型。共调查了7346名学生。报告有性经历的受访者比例为9.08%（667/7346），其中26.24%（175/667）在过去一年有高危性行为。决策树算法模型在预测过去一年是否发生高危性行为方面表现良好。当复杂度参数值为0.018且nsplit达到4时，即模型中有5个叶节点时，树的交叉误差最小。决策树中第一个最佳分组变量是首次性行为全程是否使用避孕套。如果在首次性行为时使用了避孕套，但在过去一年有同性恋行为，发生高危性行为的概率将会增加。如果在过去一年没有同性恋行为，但首次性行为年龄在18岁以下且艾滋病健康教育在高中之后，发生危险性行为的概率也会增加。青年学生艾滋病相关的危险行为仍值得关注。首次性行为经历以及首次性行为前是否接受过艾滋病相关健康教育是高危性行为发生的重要预测因素。决策树算法模型在预测和筛查潜在风险人群方面具有特殊适用性。
