Finazzi Francesco, Bossu Rémy, Cotton Fabrice
Department of Economics, University of Bergamo, Bergamo, Italy.
European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre, Arpajon, France.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 28;14(1):4878. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-55279-z.
Public earthquake early warning systems (PEEWSs) have the potential to save lives by warning people of incoming seismic waves up to tens of seconds in advance. Given the scale and geographical extent of their impact, this potential is greatest for destructive earthquakes, such as the M7.8 Pazarcik (Türkiye) event of 6 February 2023, which killed almost 60,000 people. However, warning people of imminent strong shaking is particularly difficult for large-magnitude earthquakes because the warning must be given before the earthquake has reached its final size. Here, we show that the Earthquake Network (EQN), the first operational smartphone-based PEEWS and apparently the only one operating during this earthquake, issued a cross-border alert within 12 s of the beginning of the rupture. A comparison with accelerometer and macroseismic data reveals that, owing to the EQN alerting strategy, Turkish and Syrian EQN users exposed to intensity IX and above benefitted from a warning time of up to 58 s before the onset of strong ground shaking. If the alert had been extended to the entire population, approximately 2.7 million Turkish and Syrian people exposed to a life-threatening earthquake would have received a warning ranging from 30 to 66 s in advance.
公共地震早期预警系统(PEEWSs)有潜力通过提前数十秒向人们发出即将到来的地震波警报来挽救生命。鉴于其影响的规模和地理范围,这种潜力在破坏性地震中最为显著,例如2023年2月6日发生在土耳其的7.8级帕扎尔吉克地震,造成近6万人死亡。然而,对于大地震来说,向人们发出即将发生强烈震动的警报特别困难,因为必须在地震达到最终规模之前发出警报。在此,我们表明,地震网络(EQN)是首个基于智能手机运行的实用型PEEWS,且显然是此次地震期间唯一运行的此类系统,它在破裂开始后的12秒内发出了跨境警报。与加速度计和宏观地震数据的比较显示,由于EQN的警报策略,遭受IX度及以上烈度影响的土耳其和叙利亚EQN用户在强烈地面震动开始前获得了长达58秒的预警时间。如果该警报扩大到全体民众,大约270万面临危及生命地震的土耳其和叙利亚民众将提前30至66秒收到警报。