Institute of Chronic Disease Prevention and Cure, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China.
Institute of Health Inspection and Testing, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, 430079, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 28;14(1):4924. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-53812-8.
Liver cancer, a chronic non-communicable disease, represents a serious public health problem. Long-term trends in the burden of liver cancer disease are heterogeneous across regions. Incidence and mortality of liver cancer, based on the Global Burden of Disease, were collected from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-period-cohort model was utilized to reveal the secular trends and estimate the age, period and cohort effects on primary liver cancer due to specific etiologies. Both the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate of liver cancer in Hubei province were on the rise, although there were discrepancies between gender groups. From age-period-cohort analysis, both incidence and mortality of liver cancer due to Hepatitis B virus were the highest in all age groups. The incidence of all liver cancer groups increased with time period in males, while this upward trend was observed in females only in liver cancer due to alcohol use group. Cohort effects indicated the disease burden of liver cancer decreased with birth cohorts. Local drifts showed that the incidence of liver cancer due to specific etiologies was increasing in the age group of males between 40 and 75 years old. The impact of an aging population will continue in Hubei Province. the disease burden of liver cancer will continue to increase, and personalized prevention policies must be adopted to address these changes.
肝癌是一种慢性非传染性疾病，是一个严重的公共卫生问题。全球疾病负担研究收集了中国疾病预防控制中心提供的肝癌疾病负担的发病率和死亡率数据，结果显示不同地区肝癌的长期趋势存在差异。利用年龄-时期-队列模型揭示了肝癌的时间趋势，并估计了特定病因引起的原发性肝癌的年龄、时期和队列效应。尽管湖北省男女群体之间存在差异，但肝癌的标准化发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势。从年龄-时期-队列分析来看，乙型肝炎病毒引起的肝癌的发病率和死亡率在所有年龄组中均最高。在男性中，所有肝癌组的发病率都随时间呈上升趋势，而这种上升趋势仅在女性的酒精使用相关肝癌组中观察到。队列效应表明，肝癌的疾病负担随着出生队列的推移而下降。局部趋势表明，特定病因引起的肝癌在 40 至 75 岁男性年龄组中的发病率正在上升。湖北省人口老龄化的影响仍在继续。肝癌的疾病负担将继续增加，必须采取个性化的预防政策来应对这些变化。
