Business School, Chengdu University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, China.
PLoS One. 2024 Mar 1;19(3):e0294758. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0294758. eCollection 2024.
The multiple global environments have triggered changes in the international environment, leading to a sharp decline of foreign direct investment (FDI) compared to pre-pandemic level. To evaluate the investment risk of FDI and make optimal investment decision becomes the most important issue for investors. This paper focuses on the evaluation of investment risk for FDI. First, an index system for risk evaluation of FDI is constructed. Then, we introduce the probabilistic linguistic entropy and cross entropy measures, based on which, a programming model is developed to identify the objective attribute weights. A composite weight derivation method, which takes both the objective attribute weights and the subjective attribute weights into account, is further introduced. In view of attributes' uncertainty and fuzziness and the conflicting characteristics of some attributes, the VIKOR (the Serbian name: VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje, means multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution) method is used to evaluate the risk of FDI under the probabilistic linguistic environment. Furthermore, a case study is presented to illustrate the proposed method. The comparative analysis and some further discussions verify the validity of the proposed method for the FDI risk evaluation.
多重全球环境引发了国际环境的变化，导致外国直接投资（FDI）与大流行前水平相比大幅下降。评估 FDI 的投资风险并做出最佳投资决策成为投资者最重要的问题。本文重点研究 FDI 的投资风险评估。首先，构建了 FDI 风险评估指标体系。然后，引入概率语言熵和交叉熵测度，在此基础上，开发了一个规划模型来识别客观属性权重。进一步引入了一种综合权重推导方法，该方法同时考虑了客观属性权重和主观属性权重。针对属性的不确定性和模糊性以及某些属性的冲突特点，在概率语言环境下，使用 VIKOR（塞尔维亚语：VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje，意思是多准则优化和妥协解）方法来评估 FDI 的风险。此外，还进行了一个案例研究来说明所提出的方法。比较分析和进一步的讨论验证了该方法在 FDI 风险评估中的有效性。
