School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an, 710055, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Apr;31(18):26895-26915. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-32758-4. Epub 2024 Mar 8.
The digital economy and the pursuit of carbon peak and carbon neutrality have emerged as crucial focal points for China's future development. However, the intricate relationship between the digital economy and carbon intensity remains uncertain. Based on the construction of the digital economy evaluation index system, using panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2019, this study estimates the impact of the digital economy development on carbon intensity by adopting the system-generalized method of moments (SYS-GMM) technique. The results show that the digital economy can effectively reduce the carbon intensity. This conclusion was supported by robustness tests. However, the carbon emission reduction effect of the digital economy exhibits heterogeneity with respect to the digital economy dimensions and regions. In addition to digital industrialization and industrial digitization reducing the carbon intensity, the digital economy development carrier has an inverted U-shaped nonlinear relationship with carbon intensity. Additionally, the digital economy has a more obvious inhibitory effect on carbon intensity in the eastern region. Most importantly, besides the mediating effects of technological progress and financial development, this paper finds that the digital economy can increase carbon intensity through human capital accumulation. These conclusions provide a certain scientific basis for the effective implementation of China's digital economy and carbon peak and carbon-neutral development strategy.
数字经济与碳达峰碳中和目标已成为中国未来发展的关键着力点。然而，数字经济与碳强度之间的复杂关系仍不确定。本文基于数字经济评价指标体系的构建，利用 2011—2019 年中国 30 个省份的面板数据，采用系统广义矩估计（SYS-GMM）技术，估计了数字经济发展对碳强度的影响。结果表明，数字经济能够有效降低碳强度。这一结论通过稳健性检验得到了支持。然而，数字经济的减排效果在数字经济维度和地区上存在异质性。除了数字产业化和产业数字化降低了碳强度，数字经济发展载体与碳强度之间呈倒“U”型非线性关系。此外，数字经济对东部地区的碳强度抑制作用更为明显。尤为重要的是，本文发现数字经济可以通过人力资本积累来增加碳强度，除了技术进步和金融发展的中介效应之外。这些结论为中国有效实施数字经济和碳达峰碳中和发展战略提供了一定的科学依据。
