[Coal Control and Carbon Reduction Path in Henan Province's Power Industry Under the Carbon Peak and Neutralization Target: A Medium- and Long-term Study].

Achieving peak carbon dioxide emissions and accelerating decarbonization progress in the power industry is of paramount significance to Henan Province's objective of achieving carbon peak and neutrality. In this study, the Carbon Emission-Energy Integrated Model (iCEM) was employed to conduct scenario studies on the coal reduction and carbon reduction paths under the "dual-carbon" goal of Henan's power industry. The results indicated that, by considering measures such as optimizing the power source structure and technological progress, Henan Province's power industry carbon emissions will reach their peak between 2028-2033, with coal consumption in the power industry continuing to grow during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. With a peak range between 2027-2031, the peak value increased by 1881, 1592, and 11.48 million tce, respectively, compared with that in 2020. To control coal in Henan Province under the constraint of carbon peak goals, it is proposed to develop clean energy sources such as wind and solar power, use more low-carbon or zero-carbon heat sources, increase the proportion of external electricity supply, and enhance energy-saving transformation in coal-fired power plants. Accelerating the elimination of backward units and energy-saving transformation of existing units, accelerating non-fossil energy development, advanced planning for external electricity supply, improving market mechanisms for the exit of coal-fired power plants and peak regulation, increasing system flexibility, and accelerating external policies to ensure clean energy security are effective paths for controlling coal and reducing carbon emissions in Henan's power industry. Additionally, inland nuclear power layout is one of the crucial paths to alleviate coal control pressure in Henan Province and achieve "dual-carbon" goals during the carbon-neutral stage. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct research on demonstrations in advance. Henan Province is highly dependent on energy from other provinces, and the power supply and demand situation in Henan Province will become increasingly tense in the future. It is necessary to support Henan Province from the State Grid and coordinate the construction of inter-provincial and inter-regional power transmission channels.