Zhang Hong-Yu, Wang Yuan, Hao Cheng-Liang, Lu Ya-Ling, Jin Ling, Lian Chao, Jiang Hong-Qiang, Wu Li-Xin, Cao Dong
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300350, China.
State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Environmental Planning and Policy Simulation, Chinese Academy of Environmental Planning, Beijing 100012, China.
Huan Jing Ke Xue. 2023 Feb 8;44(2):1120-1127. doi: 10.13227/j.hjkx.202203201.
Under carbon peak and carbon neutrality constraints, the coal chemical industry should take stricter measures to tackle carbon reduction. Based on the intensity differences of five major coal and carbon reduction measures applied by the coal chemical industry, which include raw material structure adjustment, fuel structure adjustment, energy-saving technology transformation, terminal capture technology, and industrial structure adjustment, this study adopted the downstream sector demand method and project method, combined with the air pollution reduction model, to predict three scenarios (benchmark, policy, and enhancement) of coal chemical industry peak year and peak amount of coal consumption and carbon dioxide emission, associated with air pollutant reduction row effects. The results showed that coal consumption under the benchmark and policy scenarios of the coal chemical industry is expected to reach a peak in the late period of China's "14 Five-Year Plan", with peak values of 0.96 billion and 0.93 billion tons, respectively. By contrast, under the enhanced scenario, it is expected to peak in the early period of the "14 Five-Year Plan" with a value of 0.91 billion tons. The carbon peak will arrive in the late period of the "15 Five-Year Plan" under the benchmark scenario but in the early and late period of the "14 Five-Year Plan" under the policy and enhanced scenarios, with peak values of approximately 0.64 billion, 0.57 billion, and 0.55 billion tons, respectively. Controlling the construction scale of new coal chemical projects, tapping the space for raw material substitution, and speeding up the energy-saving technological transformation are important measures for coal and carbon control in the coal chemical industry. The implementation of coal and carbon reduction measures of the coal chemical industry will coordinately reduce air pollutant emissions, such as SO, NO, PM, and VOCs by 37, 43, 11, and 28 thousand tons per year after 2035.
在碳达峰和碳中和约束下，煤炭化工行业应采取更严格措施应对碳减排。基于煤炭化工行业应用的五大煤炭和碳减排措施（包括原料结构调整、燃料结构调整、节能技术改造、终端捕集技术和产业结构调整）的强度差异，本研究采用下游部门需求法和项目法，结合空气污染减排模型，预测煤炭化工行业峰值年份、煤炭消费峰值量和二氧化碳排放量的三种情景（基准情景、政策情景和强化情景）以及相关的空气污染物减排效果。结果表明，煤炭化工行业基准情景和政策情景下的煤炭消费预计在中国“十四五”后期达到峰值，峰值分别为9.6亿吨和9.3亿吨。相比之下，在强化情景下，预计在“十四五”前期达到峰值，为9.1亿吨。基准情景下碳峰值将在“十五五”后期出现，而政策情景和强化情景下将在“十四五”前期和后期出现，峰值分别约为6.4亿吨、5.7亿吨和5.5亿吨。控制新煤炭化工项目建设规模、挖掘原料替代空间、加快节能技术改造是煤炭化工行业控煤控碳的重要举措。煤炭化工行业实施煤炭和碳减排措施将协同减少空气污染物排放，如2035年后每年分别减少二氧化硫、氮氧化物、颗粒物和挥发性有机物排放3.7万吨、4.3万吨、1.1万吨和2.8万吨。
