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基于随机森林模型的 H 型高血压与 80 岁以上老年人相关因素分析。

H-type Hypertension Status and Influencing Factors of the Elderly People Over 80 Years Old Based on Random Forest Model.

机构信息

Department of Cardiology Organization, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Harbin Medical University.

Department of Gerontology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital, Harbin Medical University.

出版信息

Int Heart J. 2024 Mar 30;65(2):263-270. doi: 10.1536/ihj.23-488. Epub 2024 Mar 12.

Abstract

Hypertension is a common chronic disease in elderly people over 80 years old. Clinically, H-type hypertension occurs when hypertension coexists with hyperhomocysteinemia level of ≥ 10 umol/L. Effective identification of risk factors for H-type hypertension in the elderly can greatly improve patient prognosis.Consecutively, 494 patients with hypertension admitted to the Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2019 to December 2021 were selected as the study population. They were divided into H-type hypertension (n = 197) and non-H-type hypertension groups (n = 297). Patient data were collected, including basic information, history, and clinical data. The random forest model and LASSO analysis were used to screen the influencing factors for H-type hypertension. Multiple stepwise regression analysis was used to analyze the selected variables.A total of 197 elderly people over 80 years old suffered from H-type hypertension, with an incidence rate of 39.88%. The random forest model and LASSO analysis results showed that the top 8 independent variables in importance ranking were ejection fraction (EF), fibrinogen, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), B-type natriuretic peptide, creatinine, fasting blood glucose, uric acid, and serum triiodothyronine levels. The results of multivariate analysis showed that EF was the protective factor, while fibrinogen, HbA1c, and creatinine were the risk factors for H-type hypertension in elderly people over 80 years old (P < 0.05).Healthcare professionals can indirectly assess the prevalence of H-type hypertension by focusing on EF, fibrinogen, creatinine, and HbA1c in elderly hypertensive patients. This provided proactive intervention and medical services to improve prognosis outcomes.

摘要

高血压是 80 岁以上老年人的常见慢性疾病。临床上,当高血压合并同型半胱氨酸水平≥10umol/L 时,会发生 H 型高血压。有效识别老年人 H 型高血压的危险因素,可极大改善患者预后。

连续选取 2019 年 1 月至 2021 年 12 月哈尔滨医科大学第四附属医院收治的 494 例高血压患者为研究对象,分为 H 型高血压组(n=197)和非 H 型高血压组(n=297)。收集患者资料,包括基本信息、病史和临床资料。采用随机森林模型和 LASSO 分析筛选 H 型高血压的影响因素,采用多元逐步回归分析对筛选出的变量进行分析。

共纳入 197 例 80 岁以上 H 型高血压老年患者,发病率为 39.88%。随机森林模型和 LASSO 分析结果显示,重要性排名前 8 的独立变量依次为射血分数(EF)、纤维蛋白原、糖化血红蛋白(HbA1c)、B 型利钠肽、肌酐、空腹血糖、尿酸和血清三碘甲状腺原氨酸水平。多因素分析结果显示,EF 为保护因素,纤维蛋白原、HbA1c 和肌酐为 80 岁以上老年 H 型高血压的危险因素(P<0.05)。

综上所述,医护人员可通过关注老年高血压患者的 EF、纤维蛋白原、肌酐和 HbA1c 等指标,间接评估 H 型高血压的患病率,为积极干预和医疗服务提供依据,改善患者预后。

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